Feb 27, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Denver Nuggets shooting guard Andre Iguodala (9) leads a fast break past Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews (2) at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

Denver swingman, Andre Iguodala, has opted out of the final year of his contract with the Nuggets and will become an unrestricted free agent. As rumors swirl about Portland’s future, this news is cause for highly cautious excitement. Many Blazer fans had voiced their interest in Iguodala should he enter free agency, and Neil Olshey wants to make drastic changes to bring Portland into playoff contention, but Iguodala is not exactly the most affordable guy on the market.

Iguodala’s contract for next season with Denver was worth $16.1 million. If the Blazers re-signed exactly 0 free agents, they still would not have that much money. The question is, “how much will Iguodala fetch on the open market?” He is 29 years old and entering his 10^th season. Chances are he’ll reel in about $16M wherever he goes. In order to acquire Iguodala, Portland would likely have to trade away Wesley Matthews or Nicolas Batum.

The most plausible scenario would involve a sign-and-trade that sent Wesley Matthews, Will Barton, and future picks to Denver so the Nuggets are not empty handed should Iguodala leave. This is assuming that Iguodala would want to play for Portland and the Blazers desired him as well. But would we really want that? The financial ramifications could put a lock on the Blazers for years to come, not to mention stifle their quest for depth next season. How deep can Portland get if they use their resources on a superstar?

Let’s imagine for a second that Iguodala wants to come to Portland and play with up-and-comer Damian Lillard, accepting a contract of $15 million. Portland trades Wesley Matthews, Will Barton, and their 2015 first round pick (2014 already belonging to Charlotte) to Denver. Denver gains about $7.7M in cap space and some quality players, while Portland spends about $7.3M of their liquid cash for next season. This leaves the Blazers with about $8 million in cap space (again, without re-signing anyone).

Now let’s say they re-sign Eric Maynor (as they should) for his qualifying offer of $3.35M. Portland now has between $4 million and $5 million with which to pay their draft picks and other free agents. That’s not terrible, but here’s the kicker: just because a player is available, doesn’t mean we get to pick them up. Having dumped most of their current FAs Portland is now shallower than ever with no guaranteed replacements. After paying their draftees, the Blazers have sub-$3 million to spend in free agency. That buys very little depth when players choose who they play for.

Which brings us back around to Portland’s problem in the first place; the lack of a bench. While it would be fun to pursue Iguodala (given the listed circumstances), it would be detrimental to their cause. Portland may not have been riddled with all-stars last season, but the starting lineup was by no means sub-par. There is no need to shake that up if the bench does not get the revamp it desperately needs.

So let’s say everything happens as laid out and Portland finds one decent free agent to add alongside Iguodala. Portland would have a 13 player roster, with a bench consisting of Eric Maynor, Victor Claver, Joel Freeland, a mediocre free agent, and 4 rookies. Does that sound much better to you than where the Blazers were before? Not only does the bench remain just as spotty, Portland’s most pressing need outside of depth (interior defense) goes entirely unaddressed.

My point is that the money Portland needs to make the right changes just isn’t there. Of course Iguodala would be a great addition to the roster, but picking him up would require so much to go right and lead to so much going wrong. His declaration of independence is certainly something to keep in mind, but I see Iguodala as a very unlikely option at this juncture. Still, his wheelings and dealings are something to watch when July 1^st hits.

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Jun 11, 2013; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs shooting guard Danny Green (4) and point guard Gary Neal (right) react during the second quarter of game three of the 2013 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat at the AT

The silver lining of missing the playoffs is being able to sit back and watch how the league’s most successful teams operate. Now that the best of the best have been whittled down to two, I would like to point out one commonality that has been pivotal to the success of both teams; a strong 3-point shooting bench.

To say the Miami Heat excel in this regard is an understatement. They possess arguably the best 3-point shooter of all time in Ray Allen, as well as the underrated X-factor Mike Miller. Not to mention a proficient Shane Battier. These are the kind of players the Blazers need in their secondary.

For the sake of realistic emulation, let’s ignore Ray Allen. Saying the Blazers could adjust their fortune by simply adding someone on par with the greatest of all time is true, but fantasy. Instead, let’s examine Mike Miller.

A 13 year vet, Miller is paid $6.8 million to come off the bench and drain threes. Now, that’s certainly more than the Blazers would like to pay a backup wing, but he exemplifies Portland’s need. The Blazers need an experienced bench guy that can fly under the radar, spot up in the corner, and make his shots.

The Spurs are no slouch when it comes to bench range either. Matt Bonner AKA ‘Red Mamba’ is one of the most efficient 3 point shooters in the league, and combo-guard Gary Neal is usually prepared to lend a hot hand (6/10 tonight, in fact).

Neal is still in his rookie contract, so like Ray Allen, let’s set aside his contributions to see what the Blazers can more realistically expect to pursue. Portland is unlikely to find a quality 3-point shooter for sub-$1 million. Which brings us to Matt Bonner.

Bonner is being paid $3.6 million this season as a 9 year vet. That is well within the Blazers’ price range. I would like to stress that I am not proposing that the Blazers pursue Bonner (or Miller for that matter), but these are the kinds of guys they need; players that can bring a spark off the bench to the tune of >37.5% 3-point shooting.

Free agency is coming up and Portland would be wise to take notes on the finals as they start window shopping. The Blazers had no shooting guard or small forward in the secondary shoot above 35% from the arc last season. Luke Babbitt led in this category, with a mediocre 34.8%. Since he was their best option (shudder) and is unlikely to return next year, the Blazers will have a bench role to fill.

These are the free agents I would like to see the Blazers consider when looking for a 3-point threat off the bench:

Apr 25, 2013; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard J.J. Redick goes for a layup against Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade during game three of the first round of the 2013 NBA playoffs at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

J.J. Redick (SG)
[Current salary: $6.2 million, STATUS – Unrestricted]
Redick has always been a solid 3 point shooter, though he struggled to find his shot after a mid-season trade sent him to a new system in Milwaukee. Of my preferred free agents, he is the most expensive and struggled the most from the arc this season, but he’s certainly worth a look.
3P% – 2013: 31.8%, Career: 39.0% (7 seasons)

Feb 25, 2013; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Atlanta Hawks small forward Kyle Korver (26) drives to the basket during the first quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Korver (SG/SF)
[Current salary: $5.0 million, STATUS – Unrestricted]
Korver got his first real taste of starting this year for Atlanta, but has spent most of his career as a bench spark. He has one of the prettiest jump shots you’ll find and is a terrific spot up shooter. Portland would probably get the most for their money with Kyle Korver.
3P% – 2013: 45.7%, Career: 41.9% (10 seasons)

Apr 28, 2013; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Mike Dunleavy (17) drives for a shot as Miami Heat center Joel Anthony (50) defends during the fourth quarter of game four of the first round of the 2013 NBA playoffs at the BMO Harris Bradley Center. Miami won 88-77. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Dunleavy (SG/SF)
[Current salary: $3.75 million, STATUS – Unrestricted]
Son of former Blazer coach of the same name, Mike Dunleavy Jr. is not a flashy guy. However, he is respectable from beyond the arc. Like Redick, Dunleavy came off the Milwaukee bench last season, but did so more successfully as a 3-point shooter. He’s cheaper too, though not as talented overall.
3P% – 2013: 42.8%, Career: 37.2% (11 seasons)

May 6, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Chicago Bulls shooting guard Marco Belinelli (8) is pressured by Miami Heat small forward LeBron James (6) during the second half in game one of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Arena. The Bulls won 93-86. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Marco Belinelli (SG)
[Current salary: $1.96 million, STATUS – Unrestricted]
Possibly the cheapest option, I believe Belinelli to be the Blazers’ best in free agency if they hope to save money for more players. Belinelli was an unbelievable scrapper for the injury riddled Bulls all season, and is a decent scorer to boot. I would like to see him put on the red and black in a new city.
3P% – 2013: 35.7%, Career: 38.7% (6 seasons)

Any of these guys would provide marked improvement to the Blazers’ deep game. A team can’t survive without a capable bench, and when they are not a 3-point threat, other teams can sag on defense to prevent all kinds of scoring. Just one guy off the bench to help spread the defense would make a tremendous difference. We could actually see Portland punish opponents for lazy D when the starters are resting if they make the right additions.

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APRIL. 18, 2011; Portland, OR, USA; (L to ) Portland Trail Blazers president Larry Miller, owner Paul Allen and Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll look on before the game between the Utah Jazz and the Portland Trail Blazers the game at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Free Agency begins one month from now, on July 1^st, and the Blazers have enough money to make a splash, but only if they re-sign wisely. They have a lot of players whose contracts are up and it’s time for them to mull over the big decisions. A look at the Blazer books provides the best insight into what they can and can’t afford to do.

Guaranteed expenditures (barring trade):

Team Total: $43,240,658

The NBA salary cap is $58,044,000, without breaching luxury tax. The Portland Trail Blazers have $14,803,342 to spend before reaching their limit for next season, but they have six players left to look at.

If the Blazers hope to woo free agents, as has been declared, expect many of these players to be gone this summer. Hickson is due a payday large enough to guarantee his absence, and the Blazers have already unofficially parted ways with Nolan Smith. The most likely players to return are Eric Maynor and Elliot Williams, with whom Portland has a mutual interest.

Anticipated Team Total: $48,792,045

If the Blazers re-sign Maynor and Williams they will have roughly $9 million to spend on rookies and free agents. According to the rookie salary scale, the 10^th pick will be owed $1,865,300 for their rookie season, and 2^nd round picks are owed a to-be-determined six figure salary. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Portland’s 2^nd round picks find a new home in order to keep the budget on track. Assuming the Blazers keep the 10^th pick, the books get a little heavier.

Anticipated Team Total: $50,657,345

By these projections, the Blazers will have 2 point guards, 3 shooting guards, 2 small forwards, 1 power forward, 2 centers, and at least one rookie of undetermined position by the beginning of free agency. Unless the Blazers trade some assets, they will only have about $7.4 million to spend on free agents. That is by no means a number to be scoffed at, but those hoping for a big name to join the Portland roster may be disappointed. It is more likely that the Blazers accrue a lineup of veteran role players in free agency, and then trade for a big name if a deal strikes their fancy.

This is very good. A number of teams are struggling to stay under cap, but the Blazers have room to spare. In just one month, we will get to see Neil Olshey’s vision for Portland begin to form. Expect the Blazers to have between $7 million and $9 million (on the lower end) waiting to draw in some high level players come July.

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