Jan. 6, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Nate McMillan during game against the Phoenix Suns at the US Airways Center. The Suns defeated the Trail Blazers 102-77. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Nate McMillan has taken center stage as the first option to replace Lawrence Frank as the head coach of the Detroit Pistons. Frank was fired last week, concluding Detroit’s 29-53 record. McMillan coached the Portland Trail Blazers for 7 seasons with a 266-269 record. As you know, he’s been out of coaching work since he was fired partway through last season due to the team’s stagnation and, unofficially, player mutiny led by Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford.

McMillan has historically been a fan of the short rotation, playing a few players for big minutes in a slow, methodical offensive system. This is the offense that saw LaMarcus Aldridge backing down players in the low post and finishing at the rim, compared to Stotts’ offense, which has LaMarcus taking jumpers in the high post off the pick and pop. McMillan and Detroit make an interesting pairing because of this. The Pistons have two talented, young, big men in Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Both can hammer in the paint and have the youthful legs to play extended minutes.

Let’s look at Drummond, specifically, and see why the Pistons may be salivating at the prospect of coach Mac. McMillan helped LaMarcus Aldridge achieve league wide recognition by coupling him with Andre Miller on the pick and roll. This pairing was so successful that LA’s offensive production spiked and he found himself at the freethrow line more often as teams began to recognize him as a threat. Drummond has the same kind of potential for success if the offense is run to his advantage. This is where it is important for the Pistons to act quickly and decide which player they will need to run McMillan’s system (if hired).

Which brings me to Detroit’s most pressing dilemma; what to do about Jose Calderon. Jose is perennially underrated, but will likely draw some big offers in free agency this summer. The Pistons have good reason to be concerned, as he has not committed to Detroit. Bringing in Nate McMillan will do one of two things. It will either help convince Calderon to stay and play for a more competent coach or, more likely, it will give the organization a head start on what kind of point guard to look for in Calderon’s absence. I would not be at all surprised to see the Pistons welcome McMillan aboard in the coming week to give their team some direction.

I just want Nate to find success. He was a valuable coach for the Blazers and I will always look back fondly on the era of Roy, Aldridge, and Oden (some assembly required). There was buzz earlier this season when the Lakers fired Mike Brown, that Nate could coach in Los Angeles. Granted, all sorts of names were thrown into the ring, but his was there among media speculation nonetheless. Although that would have been a sight to see, I think Detroit will be a much better fit for him (Dwight’s pick and roll is a work in progress). I wish him the best and hope to see him gainfully employed once again in short order.

@davidmackaypdx | @ripcityproject | davidmackaypdx@gmail.com

Damian Lillard struggled Monday night against second-year point guard Brandon Knight. Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Well, what can you say? Last season the Blazers (9-7 at the time) rolled into Detroit to face the 4-13 Pistons. That night Portland, not quite a month removed from  7-2 start, shot a miserable 15% from three (3-for-20) and didn’t fare much better from the field (34-for-81 for 42%) on their way to 94-91 loss.

It’s basically taken as read at this point that last season fell apart following the controversial overtime loss at home to the Oklahoma City Thunder on February 6th. I’m not going to go against canon and say that game wasn’t a turning point, however I will say that there was plenty of foreshadowing that 2011-12 was headed for trouble. Getting blown out at Phoenix in the seventh game of that season was the first sign of trouble. The loss in Detroit was another early warning sign.

Monday’s loss in Detroit is one of a different stripe. This is a different team with a different goals and a whole different set of obstacles to overcome over the course of 82 games. That doesn’t mean losing to a three-win Piston squad isn’t a bad thing, but it does mean that maybe let’s wait to get out the “Fire Stotts” hash-tag or the “Trade LaMarcus” chatter or the “Team Tank 12-13″ t-shirts.

Yes Portland should have beaten Detroit. Yes I stand by my prediction that Portland will finish the season with a better record than the Pistons. And yes it’s totally valid to be scared to death about the rest of this trip considering that coming into Monday’s game the Wizards were the only team left with a record worse than Detroit, and you know how hard it is for a professional basketball team to lose 14 games in a row.

That doesn’t mean it’s panic time, Blazer fans, and that’s primarily because there is not going to be a time this season that should cause us any sort of panic. It’s not going to be that kind of season. This is not going to be that kind of team. To be honest, the only thing Portland fans should have been panicking about Monday was the play in third quarter that ended with Meyers Leonard sitting court-side with a trainer running a couple stress tests on his knee.

Upon review of the tape, Meyers just took a Corey Maggette shin to the knee. It was nothing to worry about (he finished with 20 minutes of playing time without missing a beat) but there was a minute there when a somber Mike Barrett couldn’t help but to remind the local viewing audience that the Blazers have a bit of a history with centers and their knees. Basically that’s all Portland fans should be worrying about right now, can this team survive the season. Wins, losses, that’s for another season later on down the road when the Blazers’ record at the end of the season will really matter.

So if we don’t care about winning or losing, and if we specifically don’t care about losing to a really bad team, what can we make of Monday’s debacle in the Motor City. First, Portland’s starters need to show up en masse or this team has no chance. We all knew that. Second, size is an issue especially when playing against a muscular front line (even if they aren’t as skilled as some and younger than most). But we all knew that too. Third, it is very unlikely that the Blazers’ struggles will be diminished entirely by their bench. Sadly, we also knew that.

Am I saying that we as fans learn nothing new from losing to the Pistons? Essentially yes. If Portland shoots 42% and 32% from the field and three while giving up shooting numbers of 53% and and 60% from the field and three, if Nicolas Batum and Damian Lillard combine to shoot 6-0f-27 from the floor and 2-of-8 from deep, and if two of the Blazers’ starters account for only seven points (Nicolas Batum) and nine points (J.J. Hickson) there’s a pretty good chance they lose to most teams in this league.

What we’ll really learn about Monday’s game won’t really be clear until Wednesday. Success in the NBA is based on a few factors: talent, execution, confidence, and pride. Talent and execution are paramount. Every player in the league is on the elite level, but there are clear talent gaps among players and among teams. Those talent gaps can be nullified by outstanding execution, and talent and execution are the two things that separate the Miami Heat, the San Antonio Spurs, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and those other teams that have a legitimate shot at the Larry O’Brien trophy from the Sacramento Kings and the Charlotte Bobcats.

But confidence and pride should also be regarded as key elements to success at the NBA level. I don’t doubt every guy on Portland’s roster has confidence in their abilities. Just as everybody in the NBA is an elite basketball player, so too do they know it. Being good and knowing it is basically the definition of confidence. Pride, though, is a different matter altogether. Some guys in the NBA are fine with getting beaten as long as they get their numbers. We’ll see whether or not these Blazers have pride in their game come Wednesday evening in the nation’s capital. Wednesday Portland meets the Washington Wizards.

At the time of this writing, the Wizards are win-less, 0-12. Washington fell Monday in San Antonio to the Spurs 118-92. A similar game from Portland on Wednesday, and there’s a decent chance the Wizards enter Thursday 1-12. Anybody in the NBA can win a game on any given night. It will be up to Portland to prove they have the pride to not let Monday’s loss turn into multiple losses.

Just a couple of things:

• Monday was Damian Lillard’s worst night. His shooting was bad, he couldn’t get a lot of calls, and he got torched by Brandon Knight. Dame still finished with 12 points, and fought to keep Portland kind of in the game down the stretch. Luckily the race for Rookie of the Year isn’t the Heisman. One bad game won’t sink Lillard’s ROY run. Hopefully Lillard will lead the bounce-back charge on Wednesday. Proving that he can overcome a bad game is another box on the list of things to do for Damian to check as he works his way through his first professional season.
• Damian Lillard’s worst night was Will Barton’s best. Barton finished with 12 points, 10 in the first half, and helped re-energize a listless Blazer team that came out of the gate flat-footed. Let’s all cross our fingers that Barton can find a way to build on a good game even if his team didn’t win on account of that good game.
• Along with Meyers Leonard having a brief knee thing, Jared Jeffries had a rough night physically. He hurt his wrist taking a charge in the first half and got chucked in the face by an elbow in the second half. For a minute Jeffries’ prognosis was broken nose and he wouldn’t be coming back. That turned out to not be true, and by the end of the evening it looked as if Jeffries would be alright. Making it through a rough trip injury-free should count as a win (even if there are no actual wins). So far so good, all things considered.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

November 26, 2012; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Portland Trail Blazers power forward Jared Jeffries (1) sits on the bench with ice on his nose after getting injured in the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Detroit rookie center Andre Drummond was passed on by Portland in favor of Damian Lillard. Credit: Tim Fuller-US PRESSWIRE

Got to have this one… Quick nap and we back at it again…

— JJ Hickson (@Hickson21) November 26, 2012

The nap mention isn’t the important part of the above Tweet from one James Edwards “J.J.” Hickson Jr. Such are the swings of this Blazer season in general and this seven-game road trip in particular. Sunday afternoon, the Blazers did the thinkable while almost achieving the unthinkable: they played neck and neck with the Brooklyn Nets without arguably their best player (I’m saying arguably because at this point LaMarcus Aldridge is still Portland’s most potent weapon) and managed to compete and lose and not ever embarrass themselves. I thought they could hang for awhile. I didn’t think they would ever have a chance.

Monday is a different task altogether. Portland’s opponent Monday evening is the Detroit Pistons. These Pistons started the season with eight straight losses. Although they did get a victory over the Boston Celtics, they have lost twice to the Magic. They’ve also lost twice to the Rockets, once to the Lakers, and once to the Kings, teams that Portland has beaten this season. Sunday, the Pistons lost by 21 to the Knicks. This is not a good team. And because this is not a good team, the Blazers must win.

I know it doesn’t make a ton of sense that beating a bad team is a whole lot more important than beating a good team, but that’s just kind of where we are right now with the development of this Blazer squad. I’ve said it before, but in my opinion it’s worth repeating. I believe that Portland will finish the season in the second tier of the NBA. Better than the worst teams, but not quite good enough to make the Playoffs (or at least not quite good enough to have a ceiling higher than the eight seed). To avoid that bottom rung of the league, the Blazers need to beat the teams below them. Considering that bad teams will also lose to good teams, the difference between finishing 9th or 10th in the West and 12th or 13th will be winning games against the Detroit Pistons of the world.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Pistons Starting 5: PG Brandon Knight, SG Kyle Singler, SF Tayshaun Prince, PF Jason Maxiell, C Greg Monroe

The position-by-position match-ups Monday aren’t nearly as bad as they have been Portland in their last two games. Minnesota and Brooklyn are examples of teams, the Los Angeles Clippers are another, with skilled big men who tried with varying degrees of success to exploit the fact that the Blazers don’t really have a center. Brooklyn had to deal with Meyers Leonard, who has the height of a true center but not the skills. Minnesota dealt with Hickson. J.J. is turning into a pretty good rebounder, but he can’t really muscle up with the bigger centers in the league.

Detroit has bigs, but they aren’t the kind of bigs Portland has faced in its last two contests. Greg Monroe is a serviceable third-year center who can carry the offensive load for a bad team but doesn’t have some of the more veteran moves and skills that make Brook Lopez or Nikola Pekovic such tough covers. Should Monroe be matched-up much with Meyers Leonard, there will be a good chance he’ll have a decent scoring night. Against J.J. Hickson, he probably won’t fare quite as well. Jason Maxiell is the kind of player who reached his potential early, when his team was still one of the best in the league, and has been in steady decline ever since.

Just as the Pistons do not have the level of front court as the Brooklyn Nets, so too do they offer a different type of back court. Where Deron Williams tried, and basically succeeded, to overpower Damian Lillard, second-year point guard Brandon Knight will try to use his speed to score. It’s not just at the point guard position where Detroit differs significantly from Brooklyn. Whereas the Nets again tried to overpower Portland on the wings with Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace, the Piston’s starting two and three are wispy over-the-top shooters.

In fact, it’s the wing positions where Portland has the biggest advantage when it comes to the starting five. Kyle Singler shouldn’t really be able to stop Wesley Matthews. Tayshaun Prince is a once great defender who is no longer so great. Nicolas Batum should, like Wesley, be able to get to the rim one-on-one. Nic should also be able to shoot over the top of Prince. Big games from the wings could lead the Blazers to a convincing win.

What to Watch Four

• The bench. Always the bench. Detroit’s bench is probably the worst thing Portland wants to see. The Piston’s reserves aren’t good, but they aren’t the Blazers’ bench either. Charlie Villanueva, Corey Maggette, and Will Bynum aren’t amazing players at all, but they are veterans who probably look at Portland’s bench as a glaring weakness waiting to be taken advantage of. Guys at the NBA level don’t need much motivation to have a big night, especially guys like Corey Maggette who in his opinion has never taken a bad shot in his life. If the Blazers bench can maintain or build on any lead the starters get (or should get) Portland wins.
• Meyers Leonard vs. Andre Drummond. Andre Drummond was one of the guys Portland was targeting in the draft. The Blazers would have had to take Drummond with the 6th pick (Detroit grabbed him with the 9th pick) meaning they would have passed on Damian Lillard. Considering that there is absolutely no way Lillard would have been around at the 11th spot should have Portland gone with Drummond, the Blazers would have very likely taken North Carolina’s Kendall Marshall. Kendall’s been buried on the Suns’s bench (which doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have gotten the chance to play in Portland) and Drummond is averaging 6.5 points in 16.6 minutes per game. Leonard’s stats aren’t as good, fewer points (4.9) in more minutes played (19.2), but clearly the Blazers made the right choice going with Lillard and passing on Drummond. Watching Meyers Leonard face off against Drummond, though, might, emphasis on might, have some Blazer fans thinking if Portland maybe should have decided to build around a center and not a point guard. For the record, I’m glad they went PG over C, even if it’s true that you can’t teach height.
• Can Portland make this a blowout. The Blazers only have a few big wins, score differential wise. Getting those wins on the road is important since if a bad team is allowed to stick around on in their own home there’s always a chance they’ll be able to sneak out a win. Usually comebacks are driven by home crowd support. Luckily for Portland, nobody is going to be at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Should the Blazers get up double figures, maybe even 20, there’s a possibility this game is over in a hurry.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com