Feb 4, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Portland Trail Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) dribbles against Minnesota Timberwolves power forward Derrick Williams (7) in the second quarter at Target Center. Trail Blazers won 100-98. Mandatory Credit: Greg Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Per @bball_ref, teams w/at least 10 more TOs than their opponents are 10-31 this season. Blazers have won 2 in a row that way.

— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) February 5, 2013

It has gotten to the point with these Blazers where saying things like “this team defies explanation,” or “there’s no formula for their success,” have gotten to be pretty empty and devoid of meaning. Sure those kind of statements are true, this Portland team wins games they are supposed to lose, gets blown out by teams the probably should beat (like the Sacramento Kings at home), and have not shown anything even remotely resembling consistency when it comes to building leads, protecting leads, or finishing blow outs. But reducing this season to those kind of truisms removes all of the fun in breaking down just how odd and unpredictable 2012-13 has been for the Blazers.

Take Monday night for instance. Portland starts off an important six-game road swing with a 100-98, white-knuckle win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in Minneapolis (in the process winning the season series) while turning the ball over 28 times, giving up 40 points in the fourth quarter, and getting outscored 33-to-8 on points off turnovers, 46-to-24 on points in the paint, and 11-to-6 on fast break points. A combination of point differentials like that, and you’d be forgiven if you thought the Blazers got blown out by 20.

To figure out how Portland avoided being blown out, you might look first to the Blazers’ 59% shooting from the field (41-of-70) or their 39% shooting from three (7-of-18). If not there, than maybe look at Portland’s ability to hold the Timberwolves to 23% shooting from deep (3-of-13), or a not so amazing 47% from the field (40-of-85).

The Blazers’ poor execution on the offensive end was tempered some by hot shooting and cushioned by passable defense outside of the paint (and on guys not named Dante Cunningham). Portland’s epic collapse was negated entirely by clutch shooting from Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Blazers’ latest close win was sealed by one made free throw (by Luke Babbitt of all people) on four free throw attempts in the final 21 seconds of game time.

To say that Monday’s win was in any way reflective of what Portland should be trying to do in games this season is a bit of stretch. But a win’s a win, and you take one every time, especially if it’s a win to start a “make or break” road trip.

So if Monday’s win is not one to build off of or one to be emulated, what’s to be taken away from it? It’s hard to say really. That LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard have begun to separate themselves for their teammates jumps out right away. Lillard turned it over two times in 33 seconds with Portland clinging for dear life to a lead that had completely gotten away from them, but other than that, he had a great night. Damian’s 9-of-17 shooting from the field for 21 points just outpaced Ricky Rubio’s 4-of-9 shooting from the field for 15 points. Dame’s 15-footer with 1:53 remaining in the fourth quarter pushed Portland’s lead to 97-90 and stopped 10-2 run by Dante Cunningham, with one bucket coming from J.J. Barea, that put Minnesota within spitting distance of stealing a win.

As for LaMarcus Aldridge, his 25 points on 12-of-17 from the field led all scorers. Like Damian, LA also hit a big bucket, a 21-footer with 27 seconds left in the game that gave the Blazers a 99-96 lead. Unlike Lillard, LaMarcus missed two free throws that would have actually sealed the win for Portland, but putting that aside, the play of Dame and LA is what has kept this team in games, helped this team get leads (occasionally), and, as Monday showed, can certainly do what is needed to avoid disappointing collapses.

And beyond that, there really isn’t much to gain from Monday night (other than a win of course). Portland needs to at least split this trip to stay relevant in this Playoff race. They’re one-third of the way there after one game. With a win likely coming in Orlando and a date with the 15-33 New Orleans Hornets Pelicans Hornets closing out the roadie, three wins are well within reach.

The task for the Blazers going forward will be to figure out a way to shake off the bad play from Monday that almost let this game get away. In most cases it’s probably difficult to address what went wrong when you’re the winning team. Luckily for Portland, the problems with Monday’s game were self evident. If the Blazers try to keep their total turnovers under 30, they might give themselves a chance for a second straight road win.

Portland has Tuesday off before taking on the Mavericks in Dallas on Wednesday.

Just one quick thing, and that one thing is this:

Aldridge, an 80% FT shooter this season… shoots no better than 63% in the final 5 minutes of close games, ahead or behind #Blazers

— Candace Buckner (@blazerbanter) February 5, 2013

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Feb 4, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves point guard J.J. Barea (11) drives to the basket against Portland Trail Blazers center J.J. Hickson (21) in the fourth quarter at Target Center. Trail Blazers won 100-98. Mandatory Credit: Greg Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Roy battled former teammate Dante Cunningham on the way to an impressive Blazer win. Photo courtesy of the Oregonian

Saturday’s game will be memorable, at least for awhile, and it will have nothing to do with the basketball that was actually played. That was as forgettable as any blowout in recent history. The memories from Portland’s dusting of the Charlotte Bobcats will come, of course, because it was the return of Joel Przybilla and Dante Cunningham. And to be honest, it felt like Joel and Dante’s return may have spooked Portland more than it did Charlotte.

The Blazers didn’t play a great first half, minus a little stretch to close the second quarter that gave Portland the lead at halftime, but they did play an absolutely horrible first 12 minutes. I’m not sure if maybe they were waiting for Joel and Dante to get their much deserved ovations, which each of them got upon checking in during the first quarter, before getting down to business, or what, but in the first quarter the Blazers couldn’t buy a hoop. Portland shot a paltry 37% on their way to 15 first quarter points. The first quarter looked bad from every angle, and it was a sign of what was to come. Fortunately, it was a sign of what was to come for the Bobcats. Charlotte barely outpaced Portland in the first quarter, shooting worse from the field, 36%, and leading after the first quarter by a single point.

The Blazers would eventually start hitting shots, and the Bobcats simply wouldn’t. Portland held their opponents to fewer than 20 points in all four quarters, and picked up their scoring in the second quarter, and really never looked back. What was a bit odd about Saturday, was that the Blazers built out their lead almost instantly, and without much fanfare. With 6:55 remaining in the third quarter, Marcus Camby knocked down a nine-footer, and Portland took a 46-45 lead. Two minutes later the Blazers were up ten, and Charlotte wouldn’t get closer than seven the rest of the night. Portland pushed their lead to 26 before it was over.

The Bobcats are not a great team, that’s for sure, but Portland should give themselves the credit for turning a slog of a game in to an out and out runaway. Portland won this game, Charlotte didn’t lose it. Defense was the main key for Portland. The Blazers stepped up their on the ball defense, and did an excellent job of getting into passing lanes. Rudy Fernandez is excellent at slipping into a passing lane unnoticed and swiping a lazy pass or two. Gerald Wallace excels at that too, and his track-down defense is top notch. Portland still needs to work on finishing defensive plays, meaning limiting offensive rebounds, but when you hold a team to 29 field goals made, 1 made three, and 10 made free throws that’s an indication that defense is being emphasized.

Along with defense, credit the shot making, specifically threes. Portland’s final shooting percentage from three wasn’t great, 8-of-21 for 38%, but six of those eight made threes came in the second half. The Blazers were 2-of-11 from three in the first half, and 6-of-10 in the second; an improvement to say the least. It’s not the best idea to become a team that relies solely on the deep ball, but this team needs to hit shots in order to clear the paint for LaMarcus Aldridge. LA was the best player on either team, as he is most nights, finishing with 26 points to lead all scorers, but it was the play of Patty Mills once again that seemed to give Portland the push they needed to get over the top. Patty is most likely back in the rotation for good, coach Nate McMillan made a point in his post game remarks that running Rudy or Brandon Roy as the point guard in the second unit hasn’t worked very well, and for the second game in a row he came in and pushed the pace. Patty’s getting more and more fearless with his jumper every night out, which is good. You don’t want a guy like Patty to take a lot of bad shots, but you also don’t want him on the court afraid to shoot the ball a la Luke Babbitt. Personally, I would like to see Patty have a big scoring night and a big assist night, Saturday he finished with 12 points knocking down four threes but managed only a single assist, but that might be too much to ask in only 18 minutes.

For the time being, it looks like Portland will run a nine man rotation, keeping the starting lineup as is, and using Roy, Wallace, Rudy, and Patty as the second unit. A big is needed to round out that second five. It will be LA for most nights with Camby used to spell him. A Joel Przybilla or a Dante Cunningham would fit nicely in that unit, but alas it won’t be so. The Blazers’ second unit was credited by McMillan for turning Saturday into a blowout, and I don’t disagree. There is a lot of scoring power in that group, and as Gerald Wallace gets more and more comfortable, that second five, or four plus one, will be up there with some of the better bench mobs in the Western Conference. Wallace seems to still be a work in progress as far as finding his niche in the offense. Hopefully Portland’s upcoming road trip will give him and the team a chance to really sort it out.

Portland starts their road trip Monday in Orlando. The Blazers beat Orlando at home way back in December. Dwight Howard, whose name has come up in some MVP related conversations lately, went absolutely nuts in that game, scoring 39 points and making 13 free throws. This is a different Magic team now, without Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter, and they will be without Howard also, who will be sitting due to a one-game suspension for receiving his 16th technical foul of the season. This road trip includes stops in South Beach, Atlanta, and Charlotte. A win in Orlando would be a fantastic start to this final four-game swing. A split of these four games would be very nice.

Just a couple quick thoughts:

• Joel Przybilla and Dante Cunningham got fantastic ovations from the home crowd, as was to be expected. Both former Blazers played in the neighborhood of 20 minutes, Joel fouled out after 17 minutes played, and seem to fit in with their new team. Dante matched up most of the evening with Brandon Roy. It seemed to me like playing against Dante gave Brandon an extra little pop to his step, and he attacked him hard every time he had the ball. Brandon said running against DC felt familiar because he’d done it so much in practice. Cunningham agreed when I talked to him after the game. He also said being back in Portland was bittersweet. Dante got a great reception from the fans waiting for autographs by the player cars and visiting team buses, and I’m sure he enjoyed playing in front of the Portland crowd one more time this season. However, both Joel and Dante seem to have moved on, at least somewhat. There is always the potential for one or both of them to return to Portland following this season, but right now they are on a new team that is struggling for wins, and they want to contribute as much as they can.
• Brandon’s minute restriction has been lifted a little. Saturday he played 21 minutes, and looked pretty good yet again. His jumper is coming along, and his movement is well on the way from decent to almost good. He is now going to be allowed to play in the second night of back-to-back games. That means he will play against LeBron James and Dwayne Wade on this trip.

Brandon Roy and Patty Mills shared some words with former teammate Joel Przybilla before entering the game.

Box Score

Standings

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Wesley Matthews helped Portland defeat Minnesota for the 16th straight time Monday night. Photo courtesy of the AP.

There are a few hallmarks of a rivalry. Things like equal levels of play, equal or near equal records, similar accolades and achievements. Looking at Minnesota and Portland, and more specifically LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love, it’s pretty clear that this isn’t a rivalry. Minnesota hadn’t beat Portland in 15 tries going into Monday night’s game. Kevin Love is win-less as a professional against LaMarcus Aldridge, moreover he’s mostly been a non-factor against LA. As for their respective records, going into Monday’s game the Blazers were 16 games better than the Timberwolves.

Monday night followed the usual Minnesota/Portland script. The Blazers dominated the Wolves, leading by double-digits most of the night before finishing off Minny by 14, and LaMarcus outscore Love 21-to-12. Which, of course, leads to the real discrepancy in the KLove/LA rivalry. Kevin Love is the All-Star. I was shaking my head when the announcement was made, and I’m shaking my head right now.

The LaMarcus snub has been well documented, so I won’t spend too much time on it, and since Monday night is a holiday I’ll try and keep it short. I’ll say this to start, though, this may be just the kind of win Portland needs. A 3-0 road trip is fantastic, considering the problems the Blazers have had recently in that department, but what’s better is that this was an easy win. A win’s a win, there’s no doubt about that, but a 48-minute slog against a sub .500 team can take a lot out of a team. Yes, Portland had to play a few stretches Monday night,  you got put in a few minutes of hard work, I don’t care who the opponent is, but outscoring Minnesota by 15 in the opening quarter and by eight in the third quarter was enough to let Portland put it in cruise control somewhat in the night’s final quarter.

Breaking it down one step further, there was plenty that happened Monday that should have everybody feeling pretty positive about the future. Three guys not named LaMarcus Aldridge stepped up Monday, and because LA has been so consistently dominate I’ll focus this recap on his teammates. The surprise, of sorts, Monday night was Dante Cunningham. DC has had some big nights this season, showing that he most definitely has a place in Portland’s rotation and a career as an NBA regular, but Monday night he took his game to another level. Cunningham was all over the court in the first half, both on the offensive and the defensive ends of the floor. DC set career highs in both rebounds, with 13, and points, with 18. Credit a lot of DC’s play to his finally getting comfortable playing with the mask. Along with Cunningham, Rudy Fernandez and Wesley Matthews both contributed big scoring nights. Rudy scored 18, hitting four threes, and Wesley added 23 to lead all scorers. Wesley, Rudy, Andre Miller, and Nicolas Batum, have played second and third scorer by committee in the last few games. I’ve said many times that if all four of them can get going on the same night teams better be ready for a fight. Throw Brandon Roy in that mix too, and all of sudden Portland looks like a team with some serious firepower. I know that’s a lot of speculation, but with how Portland’s played these last few weeks, and the way this season has gone overall, I think I can be forgiven for being optimistic.

Portland was tested somewhat on this road trip, having to overcome runs by both Toronto and Detroit, but the real test will come Wednesday when the Blazers host the New Orleans Hornets. With the Western Conference as tight as it is, Portland is a half-game from sixth place,  two games out of fifth, and five games from fourth, wins against teams ahead of the Blazers in the standings count double. The same is true for loses.

Just one quick thought:

• Monday afternoon LaMarcus Aldridge was named Western Conference Player of the Week for the second time in four weeks. LA scored more than 30 points three times last week, leading Portland to three straight wins. The Blazers have won five straight as of Monday, and have lost only twice in February. Just as a point of comparison, Minnesota has only won two straight twice this season, and have had multiple stretches of losing five or more straight games. It’s not my job to select All-Stars, but I would love to see a written explanation from David Stern as to why Kevin Love is more deserving of All-Star selection than LaMarcus Aldridge.

Box Score

Standings

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject