Easily the best picture of Joe Johnson I could find in 30 seconds of searching. Photo courtesy of The Program 101.

Blazers: 8-5 (3rd Northwest Division)

Hawks: 10-4 (2nd Southeast Division)

Game Details: Phillips Arena, Atlanta, GA. 5:00 PM. TV: CSNW, ESPN Radio: 750 AM (KXTG)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Kurt Thomas (#40, 6’9″, Texas Christian)

Projected Atlanta Starting Lineup: PG Jeff Teague (#0, 6’2”, Wake Forest), SG Joe Johnson (#2, 6’7”, Arkansas), SF Marvin Williams (#24, 6’9”, North Carolina), PF Josh Smith (#5, 6’9”, Oak Hill Academy, Mouth of Wilson, VA), C Jason Collins (#34, 7′, Stanford)

We’ve passed the halfway point in this first extended road trip (just a note, between the seventh and the 18 of March, Portland is on the road for seven games–six tough ones and one in Washington–but after that their longest road trip is only three games, and consists of the final three games of the season); 1-2 isn’t a great record, but it still leaves Portland with a chance to finish the trip with a winning record.

To finish 4-2 the Blazers have to win out. Following Wednesday’s match-up with Atlanta, Portland plays a back-to-back in Toronto and Detroit. The Raptors and the Pistons have a combined seven wins. I’m not in the business of penciling in wins with the way this team has played on the road, but we are all allowed to panic should the Blazers lose to either of those teams. Which means, should Portland want to finish at least 3-3, they need to beat the Hawks.

It won’t be easy. Atlanta has won three in a row (albeit against three sub .500 teams), and has already posted wins in 2011-12 against Chicago and Miami; not to mention, Portland hasn’t beaten the Hawks since early 2009. There are some definite weaknesses with this Atlanta team, though, and luckily they just happen to play mostly to Portland’s strength.

First, Al Horford is out with a torn pectoral muscle. He recently had surgery, but he’s expected to miss three to four months. Horford is probably Atlanta’s most complete player. He’s a strong rebounder, a consistent scorer, and a better than average man-to-man defender. Losing Horford means that Atlanta has to rely more heavily on Marvin Williams and Josh Smith to play interior defense. Smith likes to defend from the weak-side so he can get highlight, Nicolas Batum-esque, blocks; nobody has ever accused Marvin Williams of playing defense. Also, Atlanta has to play more minutes with Jason Collins in the lineup. Collins is basically a non-factor. In his one start this season he played 13 minutes and missed his only attempted shot.

Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Jason Collins should have their hands full with LaMarcus Aldridge. After that Atlanta has Zaza Pachulia and Ivan Johnson to throw at him. I don’t know much about Johnson, beyond that he looks a little bit like Mr. T and spent some time at the University of Oregon, but Pachulia is known to be a thorn in LA’s side. LaMarcus has to learn to play against big guys that body him up. Going from Samuel Dalembert in Houston, to Emeka Okafor in New Orleans should prepare him for whatever ATL can bring. If LaMarcus has a big game, the Blazers should have a shot.

Another weakness of Atlanta’s that can be exploited by Portland is their tendency to play a lot of isolation. Joe Johnson is a classic iso player, Josh Smith wants to be Joe Johnson and isn’t, and Jeff Teague is steadily developing into a scoring point guard. The Blazers have been very effective in man-up coverage so far this season, and equally as ineffective in defensive rotations.

Two games as examples: Against Orlando, Portland was slow to close out on shooters, had poor help-side rotations, and generally let the Magic get open looks when the ball switched sides of the key. The result was an outstanding shooting night and a Blazer loss. Against Sacramento, a “team” made up of guys that think they’re playing one-on-one, Portland tightened up their man defense in the second half, limited Sac’s shooters to long contested jump shots, and held the ice cold Kings to 33 points in the final 24 minutes.

Atlanta is much better than Sacramento, but they don’t have a player like Dwight Howard, a guy that requires help from the wings every time he touches the ball. Joe Johnson can knock down shots, Jeff Teague can score, Willie Green off the bench has his moments. But they shouldn’t be getting as many open looks as Portland gave up to the Magic.

Finally, Atlanta isn’t as deep as Portland. Although depth has yet to be a major boon for the Blazers, there is still something to be said for being able to go nine deep, especially at the front court positions. With Horford out, Portland can attack the basket inside all night long. Craig Smith is starting to find an offensive groove, Kurt Thomas is a reliable scorer, these guys should be able to take advantage of the fact that the Hawks’ third forward off the bench is Tracy McGrady.

The Hawks are also without Kirk Hinrich, meaning Teague is carrying a lot of weight with running the offense. If Raymond Felton can get his offensive game going, making Teague use some energy on defense or better yet get into foul trouble, Portland’s guards should have a big advantage.

All told, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Blazers should be able to beat Atlanta in Atlanta, something they did for the last time in 2008. But I can also come up with one big reason why another road loss won’t come as a surprise. Portland hasn’t been able to get it together on the road. They haven’t been able to establish their game, they’ve struggled to limit their mistakes, and they’ve been basically unable to make their opponents pay for their mistakes. At this point I feel like to win on the road, the Blazers have to string together an almost perfect 48 minutes. They have yet to do that this season, but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible.

Here’s a few things to pay attention to:

• Jamal Crawford: This will be Jamal’s first trip back to Atlanta, where he spent the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons and won the Sixth Man of the Year Award for 09-10. Jamal has played for five teams in 11 seasons, so it’s not as if this is going to be his first homecoming. I do think, though, he’ll have an extra incentive to go big against his old teammates. Also, Crawford had some pretty great games against the Blazers while in a Hawks jersey. In four games Jamal averaged 19 points, putting up 27 in Atlanta’s 97-91 win back on November 3rd 2009. So even if Crawford doesn’t have a big game, one of Atlanta’s strongest offensive weapons is now playing for their opponent.
• Will Portland play to the level of their competition: I mentioned in my New Orleans recap that Portland has been labeled as a team that plays differently depending on their opponent. Atlanta is a good team, a bona fide Playoff team in either conference. If the Blazers play the same way they did against the Hornets, they’re in trouble. If they play up to Atlanta’s level, they can definitely come away with this win. Playing up to an opponent’s level isn’t good, it’s better than playing down of course, but it’s still better for Portland to try a figure out a way to play their game, regardless of who their opponent may be. But if playing up means a win, I’ll take it.
• What the guys on ESPN have to say: I’ll be watching ESPN’s feed of this game, mostly because I can handle the “sky is falling” attitude of Mike and Mike when this start go wrong for the Blazers. One thing everybody who chooses ESPN should pay attention to is what the national game callers have to say about the Blazers. Two weeks in, Portland was the popular favorite to take the Western Conference. They’ve fallen to earth a bit, and at this point, top four seems like the high end of the realistic expectations spectrum. My guess is, if we get a guy like Hubie Brown, there won’t be too much talk about the Blazers being the best team in west–Oklahoma City is right now 12-2 and are playing like they could finish the season without another loss–and hopefully there also won’t be too many accusations of Portland being unable to live up to the early hype.

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

The Hawks are a very interesting team, in that they’re very talented yet it feels like there is something holding them back. They’re the most dangerous beatable team in the NBA. For the past couple years I’ve always felt a link between the Hawks and Blazers. Maybe it’s because of the comparisons between Joe Johnson and Brandon Roy might be. The combination of youth and athleticism. The stories of teams brushing off past failures to return to prominence. Either way, tonight is going to be interesting when Atlanta comes into the Rose Garden. The Hawks come into tonight’s game at 2-1 and on fire offensively. They’re averaging 110 points a game. I know, you’re going to tell me that two of those games came against Indiana and Washington. But, the Hawks did post a 110-point piece on the Lakers in the Staples Center on Sunday night. And they’re defense is certainly at a higher level right now than the Blazers. I’m a little concerned when you combine a team with so many offensive weapons against a developing defense, so that will be something to watch.

Sticking with the offense, one of Atlanta’s main strengths is their balance, something Portland fans would love to see the Blazers consistently provide. It’s only through three games, but the Hawks have six players averaging double figure points a game. Led by the always dangerous Joe Johnson (23.0 PPG, 43.4% from the field)…and I do mean always dangerous. He’s the type of guy who could drop a smooth 40 with ease. I mean did you see the 18 he dropped on the Lakers in the first quarter? That’s what I like to call video game talent. And the thing is though, you know that he’s going to get his shots so you just have to do your best against his talent. Josh Smith is averaging 15, Al Horford averaging 13 and 12 boards, Mike Bibby and Marvin Williams both putting up 10 a piece. Throw it Jamal Crawford averaging 12 off the bench and I’m hoping you can see the challenge the Blazers could face defensively tonight. This is the first time I think the Blazers are going to face a team that is this potently balanced offensively. The Rockets and Thunder both had offensive liabilities. No offense to the Nuggets but you’ll let Anthony Carter, Aaron Afflalo or Graham #4 shoot the ball. You don’t really want any of these Hawks shooting the ball too much.

(Sidenote: Just based on what Bibby has done to the Blazers in a Kings uni and Crawford in a Warriors uni, I’m always scared of them. Always)

Despite their offensive prowess, it’s not all good in the hood for the Hawks. There is one thing that Atlanta has struggled with this year: defense, clap clap. They gave up 109 to Indiana on opening night and 118 to the Lakers on Sunday. As good as they are offensively, they leave a lot to be desired defensively. Which is strange because of how much talent they have. Combine that with struggles they have had in the past, such as taking care of the ball and not looking completely clueless in the half-court and it will be an equal challenge for them in the Rose Garden.

On the other side of the ball is a Blazer team still trying to find itself. Through 4 games, it’s not time to hit the panic button at all but steps have to be made with every game to get better. Portland has yet to put it all together in any of the 4 games yet somehow has still found a way to in all of them to their credit. Tonight may be a bit tougher. As I write this the status of LaMarcus Aldridge is still in the air, but for all intended purposes it looks as if he’s going to be out. That’s going to put a big burden on guys to step up and carry the load offensively. After the Houston game I talked about how Portland needs someone to help Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. Well now that becomes even more important. Greg Oden is going to be tested going against a physical front line in Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia and Joe Smith. (And PS if it’s ever Juwan Howard vs. Joe Smith out there tonight, my head will explode) I assume with LMA out he’s going to be more involved in the offense as far as looking to post him up. Interesting to see how he responds. At the 4, Travis Outlaw isn’t going to quite have the advantage he usually has possibly going up against Josh Smith. (Although if he settles for a fadeaway against Joe Smith and his 54 year old knees…you guessed it. Head explosion). Martell Webster will have to continue to show off that sweet stroke and renewed aggression offensively. Steve Blake’s going to have to make shots. For some reason though, I feel a breakout game coming from Andre Miller tonight. Don’t ask me why, I gotta feeling. That tonight’s gonna be a good night. Sorry, it’s a bad habit.

A last thought before I get to the keys. This is a game Portland can win just by playing solid defense and executing offensively. Atlanta has traditionally been a joke in the half-court. This has traditionally been an area where Portland has excelled. Where I’m concerned is if our defense isn’t solid and we give up open shots, or the second unit tries to run and we get sloppy and turn the ball over (playing into their hands).

Keys to the Game

• Battle defensively. Atlanta can score. Atlanta is physical. Portland needs to answer the challenge and take steps defensively tonight.

• Take care of the ball. This could be a key in every game but tonight it certainly applies. Atlanta is currently forcing  18 turnovers  a game. They feast on being able to get into the open court and get easy buckets. They turn into a completely different monster if they’re alllowed to run. When you consider how awful they can be in the half-court, you don’t want to give them any sort of buckets.

• Win the battle of the boards. More importantly, don’t give them second shots. They’re averaging 11 offensive rebounds a game. Portland’s got to finish stops with rebounds. Atlanta has the physicality (Horford, Zaza) and length (Smith, Williams, Johnson) to crash the boards hard.

• Win the three point battle. The Hawks are currently shooting 34.5% from behind the arc and allowing opponents to shoot 43.5% from three. If Portland can shoot those kind of numbers from behind the arc tonight I think we’ll be fine. This might be a game where our help defense can work out. Johnson, Bibby, Crawford and maybe Maurice Evans scare me from deep. Everyone else I’ll gladly allow them to jack up threes.

• Win the battle of the benches. Atlanta’s depth has improved but I still think our second unit is better. If we can’t outplay Crawford/Zaza/Smith/Teague/Evans than we’ve got some bigger issues.

• Help Brandon Roy out. Enough said. Offensively we’re much better in the half court than they are, but only if other guys step up. I’d imagine they’ll be concentrating a lot of effort towards stopping #7.

Another night, another game, and another chance to see where the Blazers are at. Improvement is the key early. That and winning is pretty nice.