Back to the Blazers and Kings. We all know that on Tuesday, Portland nearly blew a 10 point fourth quarter lead in about 4 minutes yet held on to win. Both teams have played since then. Obviously, last night the Blazers were victorious over Golden State. Sacramento defeated the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday by a score of 113-90. The stats tell me the Kings wanted that game much more: they had a 43 point third quarter and out-rebounded Toronto 52-33. I expect a stronger effort from the Kings tonight. For one they actually are not half bad at home: 16-15 for the year with two victories over Denver and one over Utah to brag about. Young teams tend to play much better at home, especially role players. So guys like Beno Udrih, Donte Greene, Francisco Garcia become a little more dangerous. If the Kings can get efforts from those guys to compliment Carl Landry and Tyreke Evans, things could get sticky.

This game comes down to energy and effort. From a distance this smells like one of those games where the Blazers may play flat or have no legs. That cannot happen because the Kings thrive on dribble penetration and easy buckets. If Portland has trouble keeping guys in front, fouling or rotating people may be a bit disappointed in the outcome. After playing 42 minutes and dropping 41 points, I imagine Brandon Roy is going to need some help. This is where other guys need to step up…namely you LaMarcus Aldridge. I know, I know, undersized big men cause you problems but you are going to have to find a way to regain your efficiency. These are the games where ideally having guys like Batum, Rudy and Bayless pays off. We’ll see if they can step up to the plate and handle it.

“Not that you want to have anybody suffer any knee injury,” Pritchard said Monday while attending the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden. “But this is the best kind of knee injury to suffer.”

Even if they remain confident Oden can one day be a productive player, shouldn’t they at least shift their expectations for him? Zydrunas Ilgauskas was never the same after he went through years of foot injuries, but he was still a solid contributor for Cleveland for many years.

Pritchard says no. He wants what he wanted when he drafted him.

Don’t we all. And:

Oden is eligible to receive his first extension, just as Oklahoma City can give Durant an extension for somewhere around five years and $80 million. Oden’s production does not merit a sizable extension, if one at all. But from a business perspective, this will be the best time for him to maximize his earnings potential because a new collective bargaining agreement in 2011 surely won’t be as beneficial to him.

We wrote about this two weeks ago here. Oden is only going to build value with a healthy run next year, so, as Hughes also mentions, it makes the most sense to extend him while the price is right — I’m guessing somewhere between the 5-year, $50 million dollar deal Andrea Bargnani and LaMarcus Aldridge’s 5-year, $65 million deal. And for those of you saying that Oden shouldn’t be extended at all, the Blazers don’t have much of a choice. This is their investment, and they are going to sink or swim by it. A long contract is an obvious risk, but a necessary one.

No, really, I made the defensive play of the game. (Source: Yarbarker.com)

How fitting. Two days after blowing a double-digit lead to the Sacramento Kings, the Blazers come back from a double-digit deficit to beat the Golden St. Warriors in Oakland for the first time since the Lord of the Rings movies were still in theaters. Sounds like a perfect time for a companion piece to the breakdown of the near-collapse against the Kings.

We’ll be picking things up in the fourth quarter, but know that until that quarter was well underway, the Blazers had been thoroughly outplayed by the smallball Warriors, again. LaMarcus Aldridge was again confused with what to do against Corey Maggette in the post and had four points through three periods. Portland couldn’t take care of the ball, couldn’t rotate fast enough against Golden State’s speedy cutters and, worse than anything, flat out couldn’t shoot. Luckily, they had Roy scoring 44 percent of their points until the fourth quarter.

The Blazers had previously shrunk the lead to five, but four straight Reggie Williams points took it back to nine. This is when the 17-3 run began, so this is where we will start tracking. The lineup at this point is Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Miller and Marcus Camby, the latter two having just been subbed in for Jerryd Bayless and Juwan Howard. Off we go, from the 6:48 mark in the fourth, with the score 102-93. Take heed, the pace was high in this game, so there are a lot of possession to get through:

• Offensive Possession One: Miller brings the ball down left side, eventually entering the ball into Aldridge in the post. Two dribbles, Aldridge passes back out to Rudy top key and sets a pick for him. Rudy goes left, passing back to Aldridge, who swings it to Roy on the right wing. Roy, who already has 40 points at this juncture, drives left into the paint, stumbles a bit and collects himself to take a left elbow jumper. It misses long and Camby, being well boxed out by Anthony Tolliver, chases it down on the baseline. 6:17.
• Offensive Possession Two: Camby gives the ball to Rudy right wing. Roy calls for the ball, with a body on him, at the free-throw line, then puts his head down and charges into three Warriors, drawing the foul and a call which probably sets a bad example for Bayless. He makes one of two. 102-94, 6:11.
• Defensive Possession One: C.J. Watson brings the ball up middle and uses a pick from Corey Maggette. Though the Blazers had been mishandling these situations most of the night, they did well here. Rudy fought through the screen, with Aldridge showing long enough — possibly too long — to cut off the lane and get back to Maggette, who gets the pass. Maggette drives right with Aldridge in front of him the whole way. Roy, playing off Williams, steps in and strips the ball from Maggette. 6:00.
• Offensive Possession Three: Upon stealing the ball, Roy pushes immediately, going down the middle slot and passing ahead to Miller on the right side around mid-court. Miller goes straight to the rim, splitting Stephen Curry and Watson and drawing the foul on Curry. He makes both shots. 102-96, 5:56.
• Defensive Possession Two: Monta Ellis replaces Tollier. Curry walks the ball up the floor. The Blazers switch to either a 1-2-2 or a 3-2 zone, evidenced when Curry passes to Maggette, watched by Camby, and Camby releases Maggette to Miller — who was on Curry — so Camby can get Curry in the right corner. Watson cuts through the paint, followed by Roy (the right arm of the zone), and Maggette throws the ball in. Roy tips the pass with his left hand, and Miller comes up with possession. 5:41.
• Offensive Possession Four: Miller pushes the middle, flanked by Rudy on the right and Camby on his left with two Warriors ten feet ahead of the break. Miller takes the ball to the free-throw line, forcing Curry to step up, and passes to Rudy, wide open. Buckets. Don Nelson makes an angry face and calls timeout. 102-99, 5:35.
• Defensive Possession Three: Watson is replaced by Morrow. Portland is still in zone, leaving the paint open. Curry gets an isolation in the right corner, drives left and has a kick-out pass tipped away by Roy. No double came on Curry. Warriors resume by getting the ball right back to Curry in the right wing. Curry misses with Roy contesting. 5:15.
• Offensive Possession Five: Miller walks the ball up left side, cruising below the free-throw line until Curry meets him. Miller posts up, moving Curry into the paint. Strangely Morrow, who was guarding Rudy on the right wing, decides to step in and help on Miller five feet from the basket when two Warriors were in position to make the same play. Pass to Rudy. Another triple. 102-102, 4:58.
• Defensive Possession Four: Almost exactly like D-possession two, Curry gives the ball to Maggette on the right elbow and retreat to the corner. Camby releases Maggette to Miller. Maggette tries to back down Miller, spinning middle after a dribble, and Miller takes the charge. 4:46.
• Offensive Possession Six: Miller repeats the last play, taking Curry into the left post. No double comes and Miller takes a turnaround jumper, which hits back iron. Camby tips the rebound out, but it’s collected by Curry. 4:31.
• Defensive Possession Five: Curry pushes a 3-on-1 break with Rudy defending. Curry passes left to Maggette once he reaches the paint, but Rudy tips the pass, collected by Ellis. Ellis drives the middle and throws a . . . lob off the backboard, going to Portland. 4:23.
• Offensive Possession Seven: Miller gives to Roy on the left wing. Roy slow dribbles into the middle, drawing help from Aldridge’s man, Maggette. Rudy’s man, Watson, moves over to Aldridge, leaving Rudy open on the right wing. Roy finds him, but the three is off. 4:03.
• Defensive Possession Six: Curry runs a pick and roll with Maggette again, Miller releases a dribbling Curry to Camby in the right corner. Curry throws cross-court to Ellis, but Roy tips it out of bounds. Off the inbounds, Ellis drives from the right wing and misses an off-balance jumper with Aldridge contesting. 3:41.
• Offensive Possession Eight: Miller brings it up and lets the set develop, which involves Roy curling off Aldridge on the left block, into the paint. Roy is not open, so Miller enters it into Aldridge. Aldridge spins baseline, drawing contact from Maggette on the jumper. He makes one of two freebies and Roy grabs the miss. 103-102, 3:24.
• Offensive Possesion Nine: Balls goes back to Miller up top. Roy makes to curl off Aldridge again on the left block, but steps out to the three-point line. Miller hits Rudy on the right wing instead, who passes back, and Miller finds Aldridge with good position again in the paint. Aldridge power dribbles into Maggette, who falls back and draws the foul. 3:09.
• Defensive Possession Seven: Ellis comes up left side with Portland in the 3-2 zone. Ball swings around to Morrow in the right corner, who misses a three with Aldridge contesting. 2:55.
• Offensive Possession Ten: Miller immediately drives right side before the defense sets up and is fouled on the floor by Ellis, who fouls out of the game. Miller makes both free throws. 105-102, 2:46.
• Defensive Possession Eight: Watson subs for Ellis. Play starts with Curry again on the right wing, who looks for Maggette in the middle and opts to pass to Williams top key. Williams and Maggette run a pick-and-roll, “forcing” Miller and Aldridge to switch men. Aldridge stays in front of Williams on the drive, with help from Roy looming, and Williams passes to Curry in the left corner. Roy closes out quickly, forcing Curry to double-clutch and miss. 2:26.
• Offensive Possession Eleven: Rudy holds the ball on the left wing, waiting for Miller to set a cross-paint screen on Roy’s man. As Roy comes across, Aldridge is whistled for three-in-the-key, despite being on his way out of the key as the call was made. 2:13.
• Defensive Possession Nine: Watson has the ball right wing with Roy defending. He tries to give it back to Curry top key, but Miller plays the passing lane. Watson takes a pick from Maggette, losing Roy. As Watson curls towards the left elbow, Camby immediately switches on the pick and follows to contest a Watson pullup jumper. It misses. 1:59.
• Offensive Possession Twelve: Roy brings the ball up. The Blazers go into their 1-4 spread offense, with the four flat along the baseline. Roy dribbles right, drawing the attention of Curry, cheating way off of Miller. Roy passes to Miller in the right corner. Miller drives baseline, getting the edge on a helping Morrow. Maggette is in position to help, but never commits, only turning his head away from Aldridge. Curry helps down from Roy. Miller jumps from the right block, double clutches and finds Aldridge across the paint. Aldridge draws the contact from a recovering Maggette and finishes the layup. Camby gives Aldridge a serious shoulder bump while Aldridge flashes a big smile. Maggette fouls out and the freebie is good. 108-102, 1:39.
• Defensive Possession Ten: Curry hits a mildly ridiculous pullup three over Camby with 15 seconds on the shot clock. Camby had switched onto Curry after Rudy tried for a steal on the pass to Curry and stumbled. 108-105, 1:30.
• Offensive Possession Thirteen: The Warriors start playing aggressive defense after getting a shot to fall. Miller holds the ball for 12 seconds on the right logo near half court while Curry hops around like he’s doing something. Miller hands off to Roy, who replaces him in the same spot. Roy holds for three more seconds, eventually driving right and drawing the help from Curry. This leaves Miller open in the right corner for three with five seconds on the clock. He dribbles about and takes a predictably bad jumper with nowhere to go. 1:06.
• Defensive Possession Eleven: Williams pushes the ball, passes to Tolliver who gets it to Morrow on the right wing. Blazers are probably still in zone but it’s difficult to tell with the offense spread out. Morrow drives left and is stopped in his tracks by a helping Rudy. This leaves Tolliver open under the bucket, but Aldridge slides over quickly to cover for Rudy. Morrow passes out to Williams, who is open because Roy gambled on the pass. Roy recovers quickly to contest, and Williams misses. 50.9.
• Offensive Possession Fourteen: Miller brings it up left side and calls timeout. Roy gets the ball on the inbounds and the Blazers go 1-4 spread. Roy wastes no time in driving right on Williams, drawing help from Tolliver. This leaves Aldridge wide open for an 18-foot baseline jumper that strikes back iron. Camby, with Watson trying to box him out, tips the rebound to Miller, who resets. 27.9
• Offensive Possession Fifteen: With three seconds between shot clock and game clock, Miller dribbles around near mid-court, bumping with Watson. Inexplicably, Watson fouls Miller with 9.2 seconds left in the game. Don Nelson shoots lasers shaped like cigars out of his eyes at Watson, while Miller hits both free-throws and ices the game. 110-105, 9.2.
• Defensive Possession Twelve: Nate McMillan makes his first substitution of the sequence, bringing in Batum for Aldridge. Curry pulls up for three off the inbounds, contested by Camby. Shot misses. Game over, man. Game over.

So, for the five of you that made it this far, this is what we saw. Over the last seven minutes, the Blazers won the possession battle, 15-12, thanks to some timely offensive rebounds. Of Portland’s 15 offensive possessions, 10 resulted in free-throws or a quality shot. That number should have been 11, had Aldridge not committed a charge and just taken a five-foot hook.

Though Roy carried the offense until this run, the catalyst here was largely Miller, who had six points and three assists over this span. The numbers don’t matter so much as the decisions Miller made. He pushed the ball when there was an opening — but never at the breakneck pace of Golden St. — and took advantage of a mismatch with Curry on two consecutive possessions, resulting in an open three for Rudy and a missed turnaround jumper. Miller also recognized Ellis’ foul trouble in the open floor and drew a foul on him just by pushing the ball into the paint.

The ball was almost always in the hands of Miller and Roy. On Roy’s part, he didn’t force any offense, taking just one bad shot after stumbling, and worked to draw the defense away from open shooters every time he got the ball. And every single time he made a move, the defense reacted and Roy made the correct read, resulting in quality possessions.

Defensively, the 3-2 zone gave the Warriors the lion’s share of trouble, mostly because it rendered the Magette-Curry pick-and-roll mostly ineffective, but in large part because it freed the Blazers — and this is more of a mental freedom than anything else — to play the passing lanes. By my count, the Blazers tipped four passes and stopped as many more just by overplaying their men. The Warriors failed to counter with backcuts, going to the same play with Curry and Maggette on the right elbow at least three times early in the run, and running picks with Maggette five times in total during the run. With Miller guarding Curry, the Blazers simply switched men, with Miller having enough size to defend Maggette. On the few times the pick appeared to work as it was meant to, Camby did a fine job hedging out on the ball handler and recovering to his man.

And that was the biggest change in Portland’s defensive effort. In a zone, you have to be acutely aware of the ball and the passing lanes at all times. We know the Blazers were aware because of the tipped passes, and because they showed help whenever the ball was in the area. This doesn’t mean they committed to double teams, merely that they threatened potential drivers with the help. As big as Miller’s and-one to Aldridge and Camby’s tip-out were, the play of the game may have been Rudy stepping up to stop Morrow with the Blazers up three and under a minute to go, with Aldridge covering Tolliver in Rudy’s stead. It was a perfect display of team defense, and an accurate microcosm of Portland’s 17-3, game stealing run.

I will use any excuse to use that video clip on this blog. Tonight, Portland returns to the road facing off against the Golden State Warriors. This is the beginning of a quick back-to-back trip in California, concluding tomorrow in Sacramento. Tonight marks the Blazers, 4th appearance in a Thursday night TNT game, their first on the road. They have gone 2-1 on the season. Random stat right? Well I was trying to distract myself from the fact that the Blazers have indeed lost 9 straight in the Oracle Arena. That dates back all the way to 2004. I was hoping they hadn’t won in Oakland since the Chris Mills “Seriously, Bonzi Wells, I’m gonna shoot you in the face” incident but alas all the stars can’t line up for me. The last Blazer victory in Oakland came on November 3rd, 2004 when Nick Van Exel decided to think about earning his $11 million dollars that year by dropping 20 points in 23 minutes, leading Portland to a 78-75 victory. The best part about that game is Golden State’s bench, check this out: Derek Fisher, Clifford Robinson, Calbert Cheaney, Eduardo Najera and Dale Davis. I kid you not. I had forgotten that some of these guys were Warriors once upon a time…but oh my goodness they were Warriors AT THE SAME TIME?!?! Mindblowing stuff.

(Sidenote, those 5 as a bench reminds me of how in like NBA Live 03 or 04, the computer would just make completely ridiculous and random trades/signings and by year 3 or 4 of your dynasty the whole league was completely out of wack and unrealistic. This never happened in NBA Live 97. Ever.)

The Warriors may have the black cloud of that 9-game winning streak to hang over the Blazers, but they don’t have much else. You want to talk about a fall from grace? Golden State has lost 22 of their last 27 games. They have never won more than 2 games in a row this season. They are coming off a five-game road trip where they a) didn’t win and b) gave up 118 points a game. I mean giving up 127 to Atlanta and 117 to Orlando is one thing…but letting Miami score 110 points and Charlotte drop 101 on you? Unacceptable. Speaking of the season, it has been a complete mess. You know your team is an absolute mess when the only concern people have with you is for fantasy basketball purposes. And I know I’m geeking myself up with the NBA Live and fantasy basketball references, but seriously. I’ve added and dropped Anthony Morrow about 100 times and I know there has been all sorts of frustrations surrounding Maggette, Biedrins, etc. It’s sad to think that I once proudly called this team to upset the Mavericks, and the resurgence of the Warriors and the joy that brought has come down to this.

There are positives. Namely, Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry off the bat. I’ll start with Curry because, lets’ be honest…how can you not love the kid’s game. The one good thing about this mess that Golden State has become is that Stephen Curry has gotten carte-blanche to be Stephen Curry. I’m glad he’s got that super, duper, Incredible Hulk-like, green light. The second half of the season has seen Curry light it up to the point of entering the Rookie of the Year debate. Tyreke Evans has it on lock due to the fact that he has been consistently beasting all year, but Curry deserves to be in the conversation. I mean for the month of February, Curry averaged 21 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, shot 47% while playing with an assortment of D-Leaguers and guys who stopped caring months ago. Beautiful if you ask me. Monta Ellis may or may not play, I haven’t checked twitter in a second so I’m not sure yet…if he does…he’s going to score. In the 52 games Ellis has appeared in, he’s only been held to single digits four times. I mean between those two they light it up more than people at a rap concert.

After that…things fall off a cliff. Anthony Morrow can shoot the you-know-what out of the three pointer (45%) and shoots them often (4.7 attempts a game) so finding him is important. CJ Watson is really good when Monta Ellis doesn’t play and then goes back to being CJ Watson….which I guess makes him Spiderman-esque? After that is a collection of D-Leaguers and the Immortal Devean George. Yes, just like the WWF started calling Hulk Hogan the Immortal Hulk Hogan, I will give it to Devean George. He won’t…stop….stealing…money.

This is not going to be an easy game. Throw the records out of the books people, Golden State’s style of play messes with the Blazers. You would hope for a big performance from LaMarcus Aldridge considering their inside depth is nothing, but we’ll see. Brandon Roy should have fun with guards who are allergic to defense. If Portland can slide their feet, rotate , play with energy  and take care of the ball things should work out well over the course of 48 minutes. But we have seen weird things happen to the Blazers in Oakland, namely the opposite of everything I said in the prior sentence. They are going to attack and if the Blazers aren’t ready it could be a long night. And you know Barkley is just waiting for an excuse to attack Portland for whatever reason. Remember, this Golden State team dropped 41 points in the first quarter in January at the Rose Garden. If Portland is turning it over or is passive on offense (aka a ton of jumpshots) and lets Golden State get out in transition….yowza. All of that being said, I can’t approve losing to a 17-win team that gives up 111 points a game and relies on multiple D-Leaguers to make themselves work. I’m just saying.

I calculated the correct trajectory of each floater and everything. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

We’re going to do things a little differently tonight. Since the Blazers won a relatively simplistic game — neither team could defend the paint all that well — in which they followed a familiar pattern in failing to hold a double-digit lead in the fourth, we’re going to delve into how that happened rather than go further into the broader happenings of a contest that played out rather predictably (relatively speaking). After all, we keep telling you that this Portland roster survives on it’s offense and merely gets by with its defense, so why don’t we show you for once. Show, Don’t Tell, the professors like to say.

The Blazers began the fourth quarter up 73-62. Just under four minutes later, after scoring their first point of the quarter, they were tied, 74-74. This is how it happened, spanning from the start of the period to the 8:11 mark, beginning with a lineup of Bayless, Rudy, Webster, Juwan and Aldridge:

• Offensive Possession One: Bayless swings the ball to Juwan at the top of the key, who gives the ball to Rudy on the left wing. Juwan sets a moving screen that, despite not making much contact, helps free Rudy to drive the middle with a burst of speed. Rudy then attempts a floater over Jason Thompson, hitting back iron. 73-62, 11:45.
• Defensive Possession One: Garcia, with Rudy defending, brings the ball up and passes to Tyreke Evans coming off a down screen, right wing. As Evans waits for a pick, Garcia retreats to the left wing, Rudy stays right side to watch Evans. Evans gets the pick and moves forward with one dribble. LaMarcus Aldridge steps in to cut off Evans, but Rudy is still there, swiping at the ball and watching the pass sail over his head to Garcia, who hits an open three. Martell Webster was in the area to rotate onto Garcia, but had to watch his own man cutting back door. No rotation should have been necessary. 73-65, 11:28.
• Offensive Possession Two: Bayless comes down left side, giving Rudy the ball top key as he splits a screen in the paint to free himself. Aldridge is there to set a pick, but Rudy seemingly calls him off, directing the offense with a pointed finger. Defending is Sean May, so Rudy goes isolation on the right wing. He dribbles between his legs twice and gets by May going baseline. Both Kings forward come over to defend, but Rudy flips up another floater that hits glass and spins off the rim. 73-65, 10:59.
• Defensive Possession Two: Evans brings the ball up with Bayless defending. Evans waits for a May pick and gets Bayless caught briefly. Bayless goes over the top of the pick but Juwan, who was on May, was behind the play ready to help. Evans passes to May, May makes a jumper with Juwan closing out. 73-67, 10:45.
• Offensive Possession Three: Bayless to Rudy right wing. Rudy gives to Juwan top of the key. Bayless uses a baseline-cutting Webster to get open left wing and receives the ball from Juwan. Bayless enters the ball into Aldridge, 17-feet away. Aldridge tries to take Thompson to the middle, but Thompson draws the contact, falls back, and Aldridge is whistled for an offensive foul. 73-67, 10:23.
• Defensive Possession Three: Evans brings the ball up on Bayless, crosses over and drives middle. Bayless stays on his right hip while Aldridge steps up to meet Evans in the paint. Evans jumps and hits Aldridge’s man, May, who was five feet away being help defended by Webster. May catches and takes one dribble to back up to the free-throw line. Webster releases and four Blazer defenders within eight feet watch as May makes the uncontested jumper. Mike Barret implies that May should have been called for three-in-the-key. May, having deftly stepped out of the key as the play developed, was in the key for 1.9 seconds. 73-69, 9:56.
• Offensive Possession Four: Bayless brings it up, Aldridge sets a screen and Bayless winds up with Thompson defending right wing. Bayless crosses over right, beats Thompson inside and misses a layup with Thompson recovering. Offensive Possession Five: Aldridge grabs the rebound and passes out of a cluster of defenders to extra-super open Webster, who hits front iron. 73-69, 9:37.
• Defensive Possession Four: Garcia comes up the left side on a slow break with three Blazers trailing. Aldridge is in the paint, shading toward Garcia as May sprints down the middle. Aldridge commits to neither, though Webster is nearby to rotate over, as Garcia draws his eyes right and hits May in the middle. Aldridge slaps down on May, who gets to the free-throw line and makes one. 73-70, 9:31.
• Offensive Possession Six: Miller subs in for Bayless and brings the ball up. He hits Rudy left wing, who then tries and fails to use an Aldridge screen. He gives a bad pass to Aldridge, who passes back and sets another pick. Rudy bursts towards the rim and misses a floater, back iron, as May decides to wait on the rebound and not to step up and defend. 73-70, 9:09.
• Defensive Possession Five: After a Howard foul, the ball is inbounded top key to Evans, with Webster defended. Evans dribbles right, drives left and finishes at the rim with Webster riding his right hip. Both Aldridge and Juwan were taken out of the paint by the offense, but Miller was feet away from stepping in and taking a charge. 73-72, 8:55.
• Offensive Possession Seven: Rudy and Juwan work a pick on the right wing. Juwan pops out as Rudy takes the ball top key. Rudy passes to Juwan, who posts up May, drives left into the paint and is fouled by Thompson. Juwan makes one of two free throws, scoring Portland’s first point of the quarter. 74-72, 8:37.
• Defensive Possession Six: Batum subs in for Webster. Evans begins top key with Batum defending. Evans goes left wing, using a pick by Thompson, passes to Thompson and gets the handoff coming back, but Batum fights through the pick. Evans dribbles left, spins back into the paint with Batum perfectly situated between him and the basket. Evans shoots from eight feet away off his right hip, misses left and gets his own offensive rebound with three Blazers in the area. Defensive Possession Seven: Evans passes out to Thompson on the left free-throw line extended. Thompson drives middle and draws contact from Batum, who had rotated over a hair late. Thompson makes the running hook after the contact, but misses the extra free throw. 74-74, 8:11.

There you have it. Fourteen possessions and a 12-1 run later, the game was tied. Of Portland’s seven offensive possessions, three were used by Rudy. In all three, Rudy either used a defensive mismatch or a pick on the perimeter to get near the rim. In all three, he shot a variation of a floater. Two were defended, one was ignored by the help defense, all three shots missed. Another possession ended with Aldridge charging into Thompson, a questionable (with a bad camera angle) but not terrible call, while the fifth was Bayless missing a similar shot to Rudy’s misses, Aldridge grabbing the board and Webster missing an open three. The last possession, Juwan got to the free-throw line.

If we decide that Rudy freeing himself for a floater in or around the paint is a quality offensive possession — it remains to be seen whether it actually is or not — then six of the seven offensive sets resulted in good shots, the outlier being Aldridge’s charge. So, there was not a huge problem on offense other than, with most of the early plays being for him, Rudy being unable to finish at the rim.

The run happened, as it has happened so many times before, because of the defense. If we define a quality defensive possession as one where the shot is well defended, whether or not it goes in or not, only one of the seven Kings sets was well defended, when May hit a Juwan-contested long two. The Blazers allowed two open jumpers, one layup, an and-one after an offensive board and put the Kings on the line after getting beat in transition. The best defensive possession was when Batum stuck Evans and defended an awkward shot in the lane, but the Blazers failed to secure the rebound (Evans got it), so it cannot count as a complete quality defense.

In two of the cases Evans broke down his defender in isolaton — understandable given his talent — but the true problems, as shown in the play analysis, were simple defensive recognition and help rotations, whether it was simply failing to step to the side and meet a driver or outright forgetting about and failing to communicate responsibilities. These problems have hounded the Blazers for most of the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if, in looking back at all the leads the Blazers have nearly or fully lost, they were at the root of most of the evil.

Howard, the oldest man on a team stocked with eight players 25 or under, has taken on the advice-dispensing role as well. He called a team meeting when the Blazers were in New Jersey two weeks ago.

“I told them it’s a time for all of us to recommit ourselves and look in the mirror and see what we can do better,” Howard said. “This is a time of year when a lot of teams are starting to gear up and starting to play playoff-intensity-type basketball. Why not us? We have to do the same thing if we want to make it to the playoffs.”

Everyone loves a good team meeting.

*ahem*

2009 was a pretty good year for Sacramento. Paul Westphal brought them some sort of life and they were sneakily becoming one of the more exciting teams to watch on League Pass. Tyreke Evans was beginning to take over the world in ways that nobody could have predicted. They surprised everyone by being near .500 at the end of the year (14-17). 2010? Not so much. 2010 has been a bad year for Sacramento. Since the beginning of January the Kings are a gross 7-25. Coming into tonight the Kings have lost 16 of their last 19 away from Arco Arena. The aforementioned Evans has been THE bright spot for this squad, all but locking up the Rookie of the Year. 20-5-4 as a rookie is not too shabby. They made a trade at the deadline that snagged them Carl Landry who is averaging 17 and 7 in 9 games as a King. Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes are the type of big men tha can either be nowhere to be found or absolutely on fire. The production at the SF has fallen by the way side as Omri Casspi has literally sprinted into the rookie wall and Donte Greene is struggling.

Now in the game against Denver, we see what happens to the Blazers when the defense is icky and Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge struggle. Basically, opposing teams do hoodrat things with their friends to us. I expect both the defense and the stars should bounce back. I doubt we’ll see any crazy double team schemes against Sacramento. The Blazers have to attack, attack, attack. The Kings give up 105 points a game, they are young and they are on the road. You won’t be getting top notch resistance tonight. If Portland plays with energy, effort and smarts they should have no problem with Sac-Town. If they let the Kings hang around or end up beating themselves, the RG will be full of disappointment.

Joel Przybilla underwent successful surgery tonight to repair a re-ruptured right patella tendon. No timetable has been set for his return.

At least we can say everyone has been having successful surgeries this season. Here’s to Joel and his family pulling through this.

This is how high I jump. I dunked on your face. I shamed your household. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

As expected, no?

Really, the biggest break the Blazers got was catching the Nuggets without their best defender in Kenyon Martin. Without him, the thinking could have been that LaMarcus Aldridge could have a huge night in the post and the Blazers could put enough shooting around that performance to steal a win. It was a thin glimmer of hope in a game that Portland didn’t really need, but it was something. That hope wound up being akin to throwing down your budget of gambling money on 23 red at the roulette wheel, losing all of it, and saying, “Well, I had a chance.”

From the get-go, without Marcus Camby, the Blazers’ gameplan appeared to be to try and outscore the Nuggets. They were looking for home run passes, streaking out on the break and generally playing without caution for the shot clock. Problem was, they also appeared to have mentally checked out of the defensive side of things, conceding that they had little chance of stopping Denver in a straight-up game. Layups weren’t contested, rotations were made with eyes more than feet and the Blazers in general looked like they were trying to play defense in NBA Live ‘95, years before programmers figured out how to get little bunches of polygons to take charges.

Put it all together and you get a Denver team shooting 59 percent from the field and scoring 125(!) points per 100 possessions. That left a paltry 24 defensive rebounds, total, for Portland to collect, which means just 36 — add 12 Denver turnovers — possessions at the most where they didn’t have to begin their attack out of a dead-ball situation. That’s 36 out of 94 possessions. No wonder they could only muster 14 fast-break points despite trying to run all night.

It wasn’t all bad news. In fact it could have been much worse than it was. Carmelo Anthony stole his fair share of lunch money from whoever Portland tried to throw at him, but Nic Batum was fundamentally solid despite his strength disadvantage — he just couldn’t avoid fouls when Anthony took him underneath. Jerryd Bayless had a solid, if uneven ball-dominating offensive night and, along with Rudy Fernandez‘ four threes, was largely responsible for Portland being, technically, in arm’s length of the lead with 10 minutes to go. And I’m pretty sure Andre Miller killed a man with a trident. He might want to lay low for awhile.

But none of it mattered because Brandon Roy and Aldridge, in combining to shoot 9-of-28, were the opposite of the cat’s pajamas. They were the cat’s really nice rental tuxedo. Aldridge didn’t seem to relish not having Martin around, appeared to know he just didn’t have it going on offense and abandoned the post as the game wore on. Brandon Roy couldn’t hit any of his usual off-kilter layups, in part because he was running into two defenders everytime he probed inside — the Blazers shot 11-of-28 in the paint — and in part because his touch around the rim was way off. Both were active and made contributions elsewhere, but neither were anywhere close to what they need to be to beat Denver in Colorado.

It’s a shame, in that sense, that the Blazers actually got Rudy and Jerryd to have good games on the same night, but it was all for naught with the stars in their doldrums. In the future, with a consistent defensive presence, the Blazers will be able to afford an off night from one of the cornerstones, but they didn’t have that luxury in this smackdown — one that Chris Andersen didn’t even deem worthy of his usual post-block, post-dunk celebrations. Portland may have been within single digits at times, but they never acted a threat with the proceedings as stale as, um, things that get stale when you leave them out.

Trail Blazers center Joel Przybilla will undergo surgery on his right patella tendon in the next few days.

Przybilla re-ruptured his right patella tendon Saturday morning after slipping in the shower at his home in Milwaukee, Wis.

Joel initially had surgery on December 24. His status for the offseason and training camp was already in question. Casey’s report says there is no timetable for return, but you have to wonder whether he’ll be ready for the start of the 2010 season now. Best wishes to Joel and his family.

UPDATE: Here’s Jason Quick with more from Oregonlive.com:

The team said there is no timetable for his return. After his original injury and surgery, the team estimated a return at 6-to-8 months. But a source said because this is a re-injury, the timetable for his return can be more difficult to determine. Training camp is seven months away.

A doctor I spoke to today speculated that Joel would be out for all of the 2010-11 season, which is the final year of his contract, assuming he picks up his player option this summer, at this point a sure thing.