Oct. 12, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Wesley Matthews (2) , forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) , forward Nicolas Batum (88) , and forward Luke Babbitt (8) react on the bench during the game against the Phoenix Suns in the second half at US Airways Center. The Suns defeated the Trail Blazers 104-93. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-US PRESSWIRE

The day for the Blazers to make roster cuts is swiftly approaching, and after five pre-season games, general manager Neil Olshey likely has a clear picture of who’s safe, who’s gone, and who’s vying for one of the final spots on the team.

Today, I’m playing the GM.

From watching games, interviews and reading reviews, I’m evaluating every member of the Trail Blazers squad to reveal jut how safe (or unsafe) they are in Portland.

The regular season begins in ten days (Oct. 31), and Olshey will have to make his decision before then. If I was the GM of the Blazers, this would be my thought process:

Oct. 12, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) reacts on the court during the game against the Phoenix Suns in the second half at US Airways Center. The Suns defeated the Trail Blazers 104-93. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-US PRESSWIRE

• Power Forward, LaMarcus Aldridge – Role: Offensive Anchor/Captain, Stability: Maximum

• Shooting Guard, Wesley Matthews – Role: Perimeter Scorer, Stability: Rising

1. vs. GSW: 29 min, 14 pts (3-8, 8-8 FT), 1 stl; @  DEN: 21 min, 19 pts (7-12, 3-7 3pt), 3 ast; @ SAC: 26 min, 11 pts (3-8), 1 ast, 1 reb, 1 stl; @ PHX: 22 min, 8 pts (2-7), 1 ast, 1 stl; vs. LAL: 24 min, 10 pts (4-8), 3 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl
2. Wesley, too, has begun to show steady improvement in his offensive game. Last season, he was primarily a three-point shooter and transition scorer. But from the look of things so far, Matthews has been working on attacking the basket and creating space to get his own shot, all while maintaining that accuracy from downtown. This could be the year he has the breakout season we’ve all been expecting.

Oct. 10, 2012; Ontario, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) goes for a loose ball in front of Los Angeles Lakers guard Steve Blake (5) and center Robert Sacre (50) in the second half of the game at the Citizens Business Bank Arena. Portland won 93-75. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

• Point Guard, Damian Lillard – Role: Starter/PG of the Future, Stability: Rising

1. vs. GSW: 31 min, 15 pts (5-12), 7 ast, DNP @ DEN; @ SAC: 28 min, 20 pts (7-14, 4-8 3pt), 3 ast, 2 reb, 4 to; @ PHX: 35 min, 15 pts (5-13), 5 ast, 5 to; vs. LAL: 24 min, 14 pts (6-11), 7 ast, 5 reb, 2 to
2. Damian has shown more poise in his first few pre-season games than I’ve seen most of out of most of these rookies, and most of that comes from the fact that he stayed at Weber State for four years. He’s made a few rookie mistakes, mainly  a few bad passes/turnovers, but he’s been very solid on all sides of the floor. Lillard plays a bit shaky in the first quarters, but finds his stride once he returns to the game after taking a seat. He’s found a good shot that he likes in that high right elbow jump shot, but has to nail it for that to be his sweet spot. Lillard’s also been very adept at managing the pick-and-roll/-pop and knowing when to shoot vs. when to pass. He’s going to have to step it up to win Rookie of the Year — Anthony Davis has been killing so far for the Hornets — but as Portland’s point guard, Lillard is doing an excellent job.

• Small Forward, Nicolas Batum – Role: Three-Point Shooter/Defensive Stopper, Stability: Tapering

1. vs. GSW: 30 min, 15 pts (4-10), 4 reb, 1 stl; vs. DEN: 23 min, 3 pts (1-8, 1-5 3pt), 3 reb, 1 stl; @ SAC: 36 min, 14 pts (5-16, 2-9 3pt), 6 reb, 5 ast, 1 stl; @ PHX: 26 min, 14 pts (6-14), 4 reb, 1 blk; vs. LAL: 22 min, 12 pts (5-12), 2 ast, 2 stl
2. Nic signed a huge $50 million contract in the off-season and has yet to live up to the money. Unlike Aldridge or Matthews, I haven’t seen any type of significant improvement in Batum’s game in comparison to last season. He’s still a versatile forward that can shoot the three and guard the top perimeter player on the other team, but he still lacks the ability to create his own shot or even put the ball on the floor. To have commanded such a huge deal this off-season, I feel like Batum will have to step his game up, or it’ll cause some type of discontinuity in the locker room.

Oct. 10, 2012; Ontario, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Darius Morris (1) scores in front of Portland Trail Blazers center Meyers Leonard (11) in the second half of the game at the Citizens Business Bank Arena. Portland won 93-75. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

• Center, Meyers Leonard – Role: Starter/Defensive Anchor, Stability: Rising

1. vs. GSW: 14 min, 4 pts (1-2), 6 reb, 5 fouls; vs. DEN: 16 min, 6 pts (3-3), 3 reb, 2 blk, 1 stl; @ SAC: 15 min, 3 pts, 3 reb, 1 blk, 1 stl; @ PHX: 21 min, 14 pts (5-8), 8 reb, 1 stl, 1 blk; vs. LAL: 18 min, 10 pts (4-4), 5 reb, 4 fouls
2. I have really liked wht I’ve seen out of Meyers Leonard in the pre-season. Like many rookie big men, Leonard gets into foul trouble early, but he’s been a monster on the inside affecting shots. He’d probably get a lot more playing time if he stopped jumping on so many pump fakes, but I like the rookie as the starting center. He’s also been a pretty solid free throw shooter, which is hard to find in a seven-footer nowadays.

• Power Forward, J.J. Hickson – Role: Sixth Man/Center, Stability: Neutral

1. vs. GSW: 22 min, 6 pts (2-3), 3 reb, 1 blk; @ DEN: 19 min, 4 pts (2-2), 4 reb, 1 stl; @ SAC: 23 min, 11 pts (4-8), 7 reb, 3 ast; DNP @ PHX, vs. LAL: 18 min, 6 pts (3-6), 5 reb, 3 blk
2. Call me crazy, but I believe bringing J.J. off the bench will be a great way to switch it up for opposing defenses. Hickson is very short for a power forward, let alone a center, but he makes up for it with his strength, athleticism and soft touch around the basket. Hickson would bring a scoring punch off of a pretty dry Portland bench, and pairing him with L.A. in the front-court would be a nightmare for any interior. Defensively, his size would make him a liability against taller, bigger centers, but solid rotating and help would make up for it.

Oct 17, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Victor Claver (18) battles for a loose ball with Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35) in the third quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Blazers won the game 97-80. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-US

• Small Forward, Victor Claver – Role: Back-Up SF/Bench Scorer, Stability: Rising

1. vs. GSW: 5 min, 2 pts (1-2), 4 reb, 1 stl; @ DEN: 13 min, 13 pts (4-8, 3-7 3pt), 3 reb, 2 ast; @ SAC: 5 min, no stats; DNP @ PHX, vs. LAL: 12 min, 3 pts (1-3), 1 reb, 1 stl, 1 blk
2. I’ve seen a lot out of Victor and I believe he can be a solid rotation player for us when the season starts. He does everything: he crashes the boards, shoots the three, gets out on the break in transition and plays solid defense. He’s got a chance to earn some solid minutes behind Batum if he keeps it up. Claver has stolen any minutes that would’ve gone to Luke Babbitt and will get every chance to make an impact on the game when the season starts.

• Power Forward, Joel Freeland – Role: Back-Up PF, Stability: Falling

1. vs. GSW: 18 min, 5 pts (0-2, 5-6 FT), 1 reb, 1 blk; @ DEN: 21 min, 2 pts (1-6), 8 reb, 1 stl; @ SAC: 13 min, 2 pts (2-2 FT), 4 reb; @ PHX: 18 min, 6 pts (3-5), 3 reb, 1 stl, 1 blk; vs. LAL: 12 min, 2 pts (1-4), 3 reb, 1 stl
2. My faith in Joel is slowly disappearing, but I still have hope for him to turn things around. He’s been getting great looks at the basket, but the shots just haven’t been falling. He has, however, been crashing the boards pretty well, and has been a sponge when it comes to sopping up coach Stotts’ defensive philosophy. I think once he finds his stroke (and his spots), he’ll be a great addition to the rotation.

• Point Guard: Ronnie Price – Role: Mentor/Back-Up PG, Stability: Rising

1. According to The Columbian, Ronnie Price (ankle) will “hopefully” make it back to the rotation for the team’s season opener against the Lakers on Oct. 31.
2. DNP vs GSW, DNP @ DEN, DNP @ SAC, @ PHX: 12 min, 4 pts (1-5), 2 ast, 1 stl; vs. LAL: 16 min, 2 pts (1-2), 3 reb, 3 ast, 3 to
3. There’s something about Ronnie Price that we all like. It’s in part because he’s playing much better than Nolan Smith, but he’s been running the Portland offense to perfection up until that awful ankle injury. When he gets back to full health, I fully expect Price to give Smith a challenge for the back-up PG spot. And in my eyes, he’s already got it.

Oct 17, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Will Barton (5) is fouled by Denver Nuggets guard Jordan Hamilton (1) in the third quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Blazers won the game 97-80. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-US PRESSWIRE

• Combo Guard, Will Barton – Role: Role Player/Spark Plug, Stability: Rising

1. vs. GSW: 18 min, 4 pts (2-5), 3 reb, 1 blk; vs. DEN: 19 min, 3 pts (1-5), 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl; @ SAC: 9 min, 4 pts (2-3), 1 reb, 1 ast; DNP (hamstring) @ PHX & vs. LAL
2. Will has become somewhat of a favorite among Blazer fans, especially on Twitter. Everyone loves him, and he’s given them a reason to. The shots haven’t been falling, but Barton is in attack mode 100 percent of the time, always keeping the defense on edge. That’s something we’ve been missing for a few years now. He doesn’t, however, have the poise that Damian has, and thus dribbles himself into situations too deep for him to get out of, resulting in a turnover. Still, I believe he has potential to have a J.R. Smith kind of effect on our bench if he can get his shots to drop. He’s also been one heck of a rebounder, and has been finding ways to contribute to the offense (and defense) however he can. A great example of this was against Denver when he cleaned up Nolan Smith’s miss with a put-back jam to help trim the lead down.

• Power Forward, Jared Jeffries – Role: Role Player, Stability: Safe

1. vs. GSW: 7 min, 2 pts (1-2), 3 reb; @ DEN: 11 min, 4 pts (2-6), 3 reb, 1 blk; DNP @ SAC: 8 min, no stats;
2. Jared will have a similar role to that of the one he had with the Knicks. He won’t have much of a role in the offense, but will leave his mark by taking charges and playing solid defense. Jeffries has, however, knocked down quite a few mid range jumpers over the week. That’ll be interesting to run in the offense if we decide to use him.

• Small Forward, Luke Babbitt – Role: Three-Point Specialist/Back-Up SF, Stability: Falling

1. vs. GSW: 8 min, 5 pts (2-3), 3 reb, 1 ast; vs. DEN: 9 min, 6 pts (2-2 3pt), 2 reb, 1 stl; @ SAC: 13 min, 8 pts (3-5, 2-4 3pt), 3 reb, 2 to; @ PHX: 17 min, 7 pts, 2 reb, 1 stl; vs. LAL: 13 min, 3 pts (1-5), 5 reb, 1 stl
2. Luke hesitates too much for my liking. He passes up on way too many shots that bonafide three-point shooter wouldn’t, and he lacks the confidence in his own game to command a bigger role in the offense. He had five points late in the fourth against Golden State that show his potential — a deep three and a leaning, fading long mid-range two. I truly believe he can become a Steve Novak for the Blazer. Babbitt just has to take the same shots that Novak does.

• Point Guard, Nolan Smith – Role: Back-Up PG/Bench Warmer, Stability: Quickly Falling

1. vs. GSW: 17 min, 0 pts (0-6), 1 ast, 1 stl, 3 to; vs. DEN: 31 min, 9 pts (3-11), 8 ast, 1 stl; @ SAC: 19 min, 6 pts (2-4), 4 ast, 3 to; @ PHX: 17 min, 7 pts (3-9), 3 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl; vs. LAL: 21 min, 3 pts (1-6), 4 reb, 3 ast
2. At last we get to Nolan Smith. He came into training camp saying he would make Damian Lillard work for the starting PG position, but Smith has barely solidified himself in the rotation with his pre-season play. He’s been just short of terrible for us over the past few games, and has been given every opportunity to fight for minutes in the regular season. In the position battle, he’s at the bottom of the food chain behind Lillard, Price and even Coby Karl. I haven’t been impressed with anything he’s done in the pre-season, but I hope he proves me (and the rest of the Blazer community) wrong in the final two games against the Jazz.

• Small Forward, Adam Morrison – Role: Three-Point Specialist/Bench Warmer, Stability: Falling

1. DNP vs. GSW, vs. DEN: 9 min, 3 pts (1-4), 1 reb; @ SAC: 5 min, no stats; @ PHX: 12 min, no stats; vs. LAL: 12 min, 9 pts (4-6)
2. It’s unfortunate, but it seems as though Adam’s NBA dreams have come to an end. The only play I can remember him making is drilling a deep, deep three I believe against the Lakers. The man known only as “The Stache” may have finally reached the end of the road. He, too, is at the bottom of the SF food chain behin Batum, Claver and Babbitt. Maybe he’ll show something in the next two games to earn a roster spot, but his chances right now are not looking good.

Oct 17, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Coby Karl (7) hugs his father, Denver Nuggets head coach George Karl after the game at the Rose Garden. The Blazers won the game 97-80. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-US

• Point Guard, Coby Karl – Role: Prospect/Back-Up PG, Stability: Rising

1. DNP vs. GSW, vs. DEN: 21 min, 11 pts (3-4, 2-2 3pt), 5 ast; @ SAC: 1 min, no stats; @ PHX: 8 min, 3 pts, 1 ast; DNP vs. LAL
2. I didn’t think much of Coby Karl when the Blazers brough him in, but after that spectacular performance he put on against his father in Denver, I think he has a real shot of finally making an NBA roster. He ran the Portland offense beautifully and found open teammates almost every time he was in the game. He hasn’t played since Denver though, so I’d like to see more from him in these last two games against the Jazz. Karl is, however, placed above Nolan Smith in the position battle right now.

• Shooting Guard, Sasha Pavlovic – Role: Bench Warmer/Role Player, Stability: Neutral

1. vs. GSW: 15 min, 7 pts (2-5), 3 reb, 1 stl; vs. DEN: 6 min, no stats; @ SAC: 13 min, 5 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast; @ PHX: 18 min, 3 pts, 4 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl; vs. LAL: 15 min, 3 pts ( 1-5), 2 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl
2. Sasha hasn’t shown me a “wow” moment yet, and that’s an issue if he’s hoping to make the roster, let alone earn some minutes. The guard position is almost up for grabs after Matthews and Barton, but with Victor Claver playing so well, Stotts won’t hesitate to go big by moving Batum to the two for some stretches. Pavlovic also terribly bricked late in the fourth against Golden State. He’s been finding other ways to contribute to the team, though, so I do think he has a shot at making the final 15-man roster.

• Forward, Dallas Lauderdale; Shooting Guard, Justin Holiday; Guard, Demonte Harper – Role: Uncertain, Stability: None

1. DNP or no stats in pre-season
2. Will be cut or sent to Idaho Stampede

Agree? Disagree? Let me know:

@BriscoXCI | KrisWinfield@gmail.com

Oct 19, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts speaks with Portland Trail Blazers point guard Nolan Smith (4) and Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Will Barton (5) during a time out in the fourth quarter of the game against the Golden State Warriors at the Rose Garden. The Warriors won the game 101-97. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-US

So we’re just about through with a week of pre-season basketball and, if you’re anything like me, you’ve seen some highs and some low lows to this sort of new-look Portland Trail Blazers squad. Portland looks great so far, but as usual, there’s always a few things they can improve on. This is just a quick look at the players I’ve thought have stepped up and/or stepped back:

• Meyers Leonard has promise, but has a serious fouling problem

#NolanSmh in full effect tonight.

— Sean Highkin (@shighkinNBA) October 20, 2012

Nolan Smith looked terrible last night running the offense in the fourth. He blew a go ahead lay-up that, thankfully, Will Barton cleaned up with a put-back dunk, and he just couldn’t find his jumper whatsoever. If he can’t play at a high level off the bench, I’d rather see Barton get some minutes. It’s still a shame to see what we passed up on (Kenneth Faried) for this guy.

Joel Freeland hasn’t been able to find his jumper either. He had five points, all from the free throw line, in 18 minutes against the Warriors, and only had one rebound. He’s getting open looks, though, so I think the shots will start to drop if Stotts gives him more minutes down the stretch.

It seems as though this is the end of the road for Adam Morrison’s NBA dreams. After pulling a DNP Friday night against the Warriors, it doesn’t look like Terry Stotts is going to be utilizing him going forward. Sad to see what one big injury can do to a career.

@BriscoXCI | KrisWinfield@gmail.com

by Bill Watterson (gocomics.com)

I don’t want to hear it about the refs. You don’t complain about the police when you get caught with a meth lab in your apartment, you don’t complain about the officials when you get dominated on the offensive boards. OK? Moving on.

This one is on the Blazers. See the snowman up above? That was them, cruising right along in the first quarter, scoring on 10 straight possessions — most of which I didn’t see thanks to TNT — until they mangled themselves on some rocks, scarring anyone who watched the entire way through.

Was that 23-9 opening salvo particularly sustainable? Not really, as seven of those first ten buckets were jumpers, and four of those were Andre Miller jumpers. But when you’re trying to steal a crucial game on the road, you take what you can get and go from there.

Only Portland didn’t really go anywhere.

The diagnosis from the six-minute mark on is pretty simple. The Blazers got slaughtered on the offensive boards, giving up 15 in the “Stand still and let the ball come to you” manner the Boston Celtics have been infamous for this season. They over-rotated on penetration and didn’t ever fully commit to closing out on shooters, allowing 10-of-24 shooting from deep after the opening minutes. They couldn’t overcome early foul trouble to Marcus Camby and Brandon Roy, struggling defensively with the replacements of Juwan Howard and Rudy Fernandez and consistently putting Phoenix on the line when it wasn’t necessary.

And the offense, well, it lacked balance and aggression. The Blazers were love stricken with those jumpers early on and never established an inside-out game, scoring 28 points in the middle while allowing 40. Even with Roy on the court, you saw much of the same scrambling and delayed reactions from Games 2 and 3.

But here’s where we need to go off course a little. With the injuries in mind, I’ve laid off of Nate McMillan for his rotations, as games sometimes came down to throwing a mix of players on the floor and finding something to work. And other than the Steve Blake fiasco, it’s been an OK 2010 for Nate in this respect. Tonight, there were some issues:

• Rudy Fernandez: 15 minutes.
• Juwan Howard: 9 minutes.
• Dante Cunningham: 12 minutes. Less than 10 with game in question.
• Martell Webster: 14 minutes. No significant time in first half.
• Nic Batum: 20 minutes. Total head scratcher.

Let’s quarterback for a moment here. Rudy probably doesn’t deserve minutes at this point. He hasn’t earned them, nor has he really proven to have much of an upside with extended minutes this season anyways. Should he be playing over Webster? Well, Webster looked off tonight as well — as in down in the dumps — and hasn’t been great all season either, but at least in this series he has the defense and rebounding edge. The Blazers could use that.

Then there’s Juwan Howard, who isn’t quick enough to defend against Phoenix, as evidenced when Stoudemire dribbled around him during a double team and drew a foul at the rim. Howard made up for his shortcomings in Game 4 with hustle and some timely offense, but he couldn’t keep up tonight. Playing Howard whenever Camby gets into foul trouble just seems too safe. If Cunningham is healthy enough to play — and he looked energetic enough — then this might be a matchup to use him in. Or, when Channing Frye is in the game camping out around the arc, maybe use Batum as your four to defend him, playing Aldridge at the five. It’s worth considering, at least in spurts.

Something had to be up with Batum though, didn’t it? Twenty minutes without much foul trouble when the Blazers needed length, speed, effort and shooting? Very odd. Maybe the shoulder was bothering him, or maybe he ate some bad shellfish.

Taking a step back and looking at the series as a whole, it’s at least somewhat significant that, in a series headed to Game 6, Phoenix is the only team that’s legitimately destroyed it’s opponent in its wins. That doesn’t tell you anything you don’t know — that the Suns are healthier and more talented — but it’s a solid indicator that the Blazers aren’t sniffing wins when they aren’t going full speed.

This feels like we’re headed for a Game 7, though, just a hunch. Though they’ve done so at times in this very series, the Blazers have just seemed to come through and surprise us whenever they looked ready for that final glaze of barbecue sauce. It’s certainly not something I can quantify with statistics, but my gut says Game 6 will be a real game, as opposed to this wreck.

Good old gut analysis. Just don’t ask what my gut says about a do-or-die in Phoenix.

Kind of self explanatory, this one. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

Individual Thoughts:

We’ve been very complimentary of LaMarcus Aldridge this year — with good reason — but this was one of the worst rebounding performances I can remember seeing from him in quite some time. It’s not the rebounding total (2) that was disturbing, but his lack of physical aggression. When Aldridge is switched onto the perimeter, you can understand him not grabbing tons of boards, but when he’s in perfect position in the paint and is getting beat from behind by Channing Frye (and Amare and Amundson), that’s a problem. Offensively he still showed good patience and decision making — Phoenix was much quicker with its double-teams off the dribble — but he left a lot of unused real estate on the baseline untouched. The Suns are practically begging him to go left, and he played right into their hands.

The annihilation overshadowed what could have been a nice overall game from Jerryd Bayless, which is a little like someone trying to put on a bake sale while Godzilla ravages the city. Bayless was the most aggressive Blazer in attacking the defense, hit some very nice looking threes and was playing the point guard position as well as I’ve seen since Game 1 of 2009 Summer League until the wheels started coming off. As with everyone else, though, Bayless fell in the the jumper too much. When Steve Nash is guarding you, that’s Uwe Boll bad.

What can you say about Roy? He’s not right, he’s playing tough, he committed some dumb fouls that interrupted his rhythm — which probably kept his knee from warming up completely — and forced the issue when the offense fell flat.

That’s a lot of Andre Miller jumpers gone to waste, no? Other than one of the worst passes he thrown all season, Miller was the best Blazer on the floor.

Marcus Camby was the primary playmaker early on, netting five assists in total, but his defense was sorely missed when he picked up the fouls. If Nate isn’t going to get creative with Dante or Nic, it might be best to just let Camby play through the fouls. Marcus was also just as guilty as everyone else in not going after the boards.

We’ve discussed the rest in terms of rotation and it feels like something was wrong with at least Batum and Webster. But Rudy? He came in, got beat off the dribble, fouled to cover up for it, committed two turnovers which became fast breaks and did nothing of value on offense. By the end of his shift, it was a joke. It’s a shame that he’s got so many people who want him to do well, and the diminishing returns he’s offering in return have threatened to shatter the +/- system of evaluation.