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Restricted Free Agency Poses Questions for Trail Blazers

By Steven Dewald

Jan 4, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Courtney Lee (5) moves past Portland Trail Blazers forward Meyers Leonard (11) and forward Allen Crabbe (23) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 4, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Courtney Lee (5) moves past Portland Trail Blazers forward Meyers Leonard (11) and forward Allen Crabbe (23) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Trail Blazers will have three restricted free agents this summer. Who will return to Rip City?

Portland’s exceeded expectation are nice, but they will come at a price. Many players on the roster have set themselves up for a big pay day this summer. The pending salary cap increase this offseason will turn the market into a frenzy; so guys like Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless, and Meyers Leonard are entering a friendly market. Neil Olshey (Portland’s GM) will have an opportunity to match any offer that the above mentioned players receive, but will it be the cap responsible move? Which players are most likely to be retained by the Trail Blazers at the season’s conclusion?

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Crabbe is the obvious keeper, but he will also be the most expensive to retain. His numbers have seen a monumental jump this season, he went from 3.3 PPG in 2014-15 to 11.0 PPG in 2015-16. This uptick in production isn’t just from increased playing time, as his PER 36 numbers have increased from 8.9 PTS to 15.2 PTS. His increased production couples nicely with how in demand his skill set is in the current NBA playing style. He is a solid outside shooter (.373 3P%) and a capable defender, both of which will have him in line for a significant pay raise.

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Feb 6, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless (4) dunks against the Houston Rockets in the second half at Toyota Center. Portland won 96 to 79. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 6, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless (4) dunks against the Houston Rockets in the second half at Toyota Center. Portland won 96 to 79. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports /

Crabbe is a lock for resigning, but the next two guys are a bit more of a mixed bag. Leonard entered the season with high expectations, which were promptly side tracked by enigmatic shooting and injury troubles. In January (8.9 PPG / .414 3P%) things looked like they were turning around for the former Illinois big man, but he has yet to find his footing since then (February: 5.9 PPG / .300 3P%). Leonard’s up down play is nothing new for fans of the Trail Blazers, but the patience is wearing thin once again. The only thing scarier than overpaying Leonard is the thought of him putting his skills together for another franchise. Seven footers with a shooting stroke don’t fall out of the sky everyday.

Leonard’s recent lack of playing time has directly corresponded with the current rise of Harkless. The former Magic wing has endured a roller coaster season as a Trail Blazer. Harkless cashed in on extra playing time earlier this season at the expense of a Gerald Henderson injury, but after his recovery his playing time dwindled. It seemed that Harkless was destined for the same fate he endured in Orlando. After seeing limited action in January, he has exploded this month. His versatility on both offense and defense have been crucial during the current Portland winning streak.

Olshey will face some tough decisions when the season wraps up (not as tough as last year), but he does have the ability to match contracts working in his favor. On top of being able to match, the Trail Blazers also own the “bird rights” on these players. This will allow them to go above the salary cap to retain their services (if Portland lands a marquee free agent). The major question will be who to invest in and who to pass on.