Allen Crabbe: Earning His Keep

Allen Crabbe’s Ascent to Relevance

This is a pivotal time in the life of Allen Crabbe. After being buried deep on the bench of a playoff team his first two years, Crabbe finally has earned a consistent role in an NBA rotation. Crabbe has the rest of this season to showcase his talents before his rookie contract expires. Two facts that further increase the stakes: The NBA’s salary cap will skyrocket next season and the league now places a premium on wings that can play a 3-and-D game. Crabbe has a chance to prove he is worth millions. How has he responded?

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While the seven game losing streak was tough to endure for Blazer fans, there is always a silver lining. Mr. Crabbe was having a mini-breakthrough. During the seven game stretch of Blazer hell, he shot 50% (32-64) from the floor, including 45% (9-20) beyond the arc. Crabbe looked like a consistent and confident bench scorer. During the seventh and final loss of the streak, he was frustrating one of the league’s best offensive players, James Harden. Coach Terry Stotts’ rewarded him with crunch time minutes vs. Houston. Unfortunately, it did not end well.

Nov 18, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) is fouled by Portland Trail Blazers forward Allen Crabbe (23) in the second half at Toyota Center. The Rockets won in overtime 108-103. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Harden put on a clinic in the 4^th quarter and overtime, scoring 26 of his 45 total points. He abused the inexperience to draw foul after foul on Crabbe. To be fair, Harden does this to most players in the NBA. However, this game did serve as a reality check for Crabbe. He definitely earned his role on the Trailblazers, but still has a long way to go before free agency this summer.

If Crabbe wants to enjoy a lucrative contract offer or two, he will have to improve a couple of key areas. According to basketballreference.com, the Trailblazers are 15.5 points worse per 100 possessions this season when Crabbe is on the floor vs. when he is on the bench. While +/- is not a perfect stat and 15 games into the season is still a relatively small sample size, it is a substantial difference. Digging further into the statistics and game film, two trends stand out.

Simply put, he needs to foul less and draw more fouls. His recent uptick in minutes coincides with a much larger uptick in fouls committed. It is much easier said than done guarding Harden and Jamal Crawford without fouling, but Crabbe has to understand that both those players thrive off getting to the foul line.

Conversely, his reluctance to take the ball to the rim does not bode well for his offensive efficiency. Settling for jump shots not only results in fewer free throws, but fewer offensive rebounds for teammates. Jump shots are 20% less likely to turn into an offensive rebound than close range shots (www.82games.com) – Meaning that if Crabbe misses at the rim, defender’s that attempt to alter his shot give an offensive rebounding machine, who goes by the name ‘Ed Davis’, a great chance at a board and a bucket.

The NBA’s salary cap will skyrocket next season and the league now places a premium on wings that can play a 3-and-D game. Crabbe has a chance to prove he is worth millions.

To illustrate these points this further, over Crabbe’s last five games he has committed a whopping 21 fouls, all while not earning himself a trip to the charity stripe. (basketballreference.com)

While Crabbe has plenty of areas to improve, it is important to remember that he is 23 years old and is currently on fire with his mid-range jumper. He has the rest of the season to improve his game before a potential payday. On a personal level, he must know what is at stake. Nearly every team in the league will have plenty of money to throw around this summer. The Trailblazers, being one of those teams with plenty of future cap space, would love to see him excel this year and years to come wearing black and red.