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Mailbag: LaMarcus Aldridge free agent contingency plans

By David MacKay

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Let me make sure I’ve got all that straight before I dive in.

Possibility A: LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez leave in free agency, but the Trail Blazers re-sign Wesley Matthews. In order to fill the hole Aldridge leaves, the Trail Blazers push a max contract toward RFA Tristan Thompson to force the Cavaliers’ hand. They then attempt to sign Lakers UFA Wesley Johnson or the Mavs’ Al-Farouq Aminu if he opts out of his contract. The new roster pushes Chris Kaman into the starting lineup with the newly acquired Thompson, while Johnson/Aminu back up Nicolas Batum at small forward.

Possibility B: Aldridge leaves in free agency, but the Trail Blazers re-sign Matthews and Lopez. Meyers Leonard joins the starting lineup as a power forward and the Trail Blazers target a small forward in the draft to add depth at the wing. To round out the roster, they sign UFA Brandan Wright out of Phoenix for frontcourt depth.

Possibility A

Jun 9, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) grabs a rebound during the first quarter against the Golden State Warriors in game three of the NBA Finals at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

First things first, the Trail Blazers will not put Kaman in the starting lineup. At 33 years old, his mobility is not great, nor is his defense. He is most valuable to them as a guy that can put up a few points off the bench while grabbing rebounds. Supposing Lopez does not re-sign, the Trail Blazers will either start Leonard or, more likely, look to sign another center using the money freed up by Aldridge and Lopez’s departure.

The idea of signing Thompson is appealing, but the Cavaliers are likely to keep him at all costs. Operating under the assumption that both Kevin Love and LeBron James opt in, however, money could be tight for them. Signing Thompson to a multi-year deal, even for a lot of money, would be wise for whichever team can manage it since the salary cap will spike after next season, making the locked cost of such a contract a relatively smaller percentage of the team’s overall salary. Signing Thompson is hypothetically possible, but still unlikely.

As for Johnson or Aminu, I could absolutely see Portland trying to pry Aminu away from Dallas. He is the kind of young, athletic, energy guy that can be a bench spark in the right circumstances. I’m less sold on Johnson, but if he is available and the Trail Blazers think he can help, far be it from me to complain about the acquisition.

Overall, this route seems improbable.

Possibility B

Feb 7, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers center Meyers Leonard (11) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Trail Blazers 111-101 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Leonard is close to being a viable starting option. I can see him in the starting lineup if Aldridge leaves, though the team would need to become much more guard oriented to remain successful. This is doable if C.J. McCollum continues his rapid ascension, though we do not know if a surgically repaired Matthews will be ready to take on an even heavier role.

I personally would like to see the Trail Blazers draft Virginia small forward Justin Anderson, so you won’t find it difficult to convince me that a small forward would make a good target. Wing depth has been an issue in Portland for several years, and I am on board for finding a long-term remedy. The draft is a great place to find lasting value if you know what you’re doing.

Which brings us to frontcourt depth. With Leonard in the starting lineup, he needs to have a suitable backup. I like your idea of Wright. He is generally heralded as helpful wherever he plays. There are few second unit bigs in this league that can exploit holes in the opposing defense and plug holes in his team’s defense as well as Wright. He could even be acquired for the mid-level exception if the Trail Blazers prioritize bigger free agents first. At 27 years old, that’s a great value.

Overall, this route seems doable.

We really don’t know what the Trail Blazers will try to do until we know which of their free agents are re-signing and which are not. Of the scenarios you laid out, I think the second one is more feasible. Neither would make the Trail Blazers a better team than they were this year, but, if Aldridge leaves, Portland is looking at minimizing decline any way you slice it. Regardless of how free agency plays out, Aminu and Wright are solid targets for Portland, so I am glad you brought them up.

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