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LaMarcus Aldridge free agency: Meyers Leonard could step in

By David MacKay

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Not long ago, we discussed the possibility of Meyers Leonard becoming the Portland Trail Blazers’ starting center if Robin Lopez leaves in free agency, and why that might be difficult. At this point in his career, a leap into the starting five would initially come with some pretty distinct challenges. It would be preferable to bring him off the bench for a while longer yet, but there is another scenario to be considered that could force Portland’s hand.

If LaMarcus Aldridge leaves in free agency, the Trail Blazers would need an immediate stand-in at power forward. Their best options on roster right now are Leonard and Joel Freeland. Leonard, 23, improved greatly in the 2014-15 season and is officially on the books for another year in Portland. Freeland, 28, on the other hand, missed a significant chunk of time due to injury (playing sparingly upon return) and has yet to receive the $3.8M qualifying offer required to make him a restricted free agent. Of the two, Leonard makes the most sense to join the starting unit, barring a major free agent acquisition.

Power forward options in free agency

As far as free agency goes, power forward pickings are slim on the open market this year. Supposing the Trail Blazers attempted to replace Aldridge with a new addition, there is little room for optimism that an available player would be a significant upgrade from Leonard. The top-10 power forwards to hit free agency this year, according to the rankings of hoopshype.com, are listed below:

1. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted)
2. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers (player option)
3. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
4. Josh Smith, Houston Rockets (unrestricted)
5. Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted)
6. David West, Indiana Pacers (player option)
7. Thaddeus Young, Brooklyn Nets (player option)
8. Brandon Bass, Boston Celtics (unrestricted)
9. Amar’e Stoudemire, Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted)
10. Carlos Boozer, Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted)

There are pretty noticeable talent tiers within that list. Aldridge, Love, and Millsap occupy the top tier, as players that can arguably be the first or second option on a successful team. Smith, Thompson, West, and Young occupy the middle tier as players that can give you starting value, but are not team leaders by any stretch. Bass, Stoudemire, and Boozer occupy the bottom tier, as players that would start if you needed them to, but can contribute more valuably off the bench.

Leonard is a cut above that bottom tier; especially when considering developmental potential. In the event that Aldridge leaves in free agency, the Trail Blazers would probably only pursue Bass, Stoudemire, or Boozer to fill out the depth chart, moving Leonard into the starting lineup. If Aldridge leaves and Portland is unable to sign another player from the top tier, development will trump contention anyway. There is no reason to think that any of the bottom tier guys would give the Trail Blazers a better shot at either than Leonard would.

So could the Trail Blazers circumvent any major restructuring by signing a top-tier power forward and leaving Leonard on the bench? Probably not. Love and Millsap, aside from having little incentive to explore Portland among their options, seem pretty well situated. Both players were important pieces of teams that made the conference finals this year. The latest information on either suggests that both would be happy to return to their respective teams in 2015-16.

Kevin Love:

Paul Millsap:

"I think looking at different options, looking at this team, looking at what we’ve built thus far, in weight my options I can’t make a decision right now,” Millsap said. “It’s been a long series, a long year, for me and the team. Let things die down, cool off, relax and think about it a little bit. We are a family. This team is close. It will play a lot into the decision. – Via Chris Vivlamore, Atlanta Journal Constitution"

Operating under the assumption, then, that the Trail Blazers’ most feasible free agent power forward replacement comes from that middle tier instead; we must look at those remaining four players in a few different ways. Do any of them make Portland an immediate contender? If not, do any of them offer more than Leonard might in the long-term? Are any of them even gettable?

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The answer to the first question is a resounding “No”. The only way that the Trail Blazers remain close to the level they were at this year, without Aldridge, is if they sign a top-tier replacement who happens to have great chemistry with the rest of the team right out of the gate. None of the mid-tier power forwards can remotely offer the kind of contributions that Aldridge has in recent years.

As for long-term potential, the only guys among those four that might bring more to the table than Leonard over the course of several seasons are Thompson and Young. I could see either of them really excelling in the right situation. They could start over Leonard and give him at least another year to find his feet, but, again, if neither can make the Trail Blazers true contenders, the team would be better off seeing what Leonard can do when forced to develop more rapidly. To this point, they should not even consider the 34 year old West, or the destructive Smith over Leonard.

The Trail Blazers would have a hard time getting their hands on Thompson or Young though. The Cavaliers are expected to re-sign Thompson at almost all cost, unless someone jumps in with a surprise max offer. The Nets are expected to re-sign Young, with whom there is mutual interest.

Free agency may not yield any starting caliber power forwards for the Trail Blazers if they search. They would be better off moving Leonard into the starting lineup if Aldridge leaves. Perhaps a sign-and-trade involving another power forward could be beneficial, but that would hinge on where Aldridge wanted to go, if that team had a suitable piece to trade, and whether or not all three parties (Portland, Aldridge, trade partner) could agree to terms. Even then, options are few and far between.

So what about the NBA Draft?

The draft is a great rebuilding tool, but the Trail Blazers only hold the 23rd pick. There are a number of gifted power forwards who could be available in the late-first round this year (Trey Lyles, Montrezl Harrell, Kevon Looney, Christian Wood, Chris McCullough) yet none of them are ready to be NBA starters in their rookie seasons. Well, not in Portland at least. Leonard would start over any of them in 2015-16.

Where the Trail Blazers stand

There is no future where the Trail Blazers are a better team next season without Aldridge, but they can get a head start on an eventually bright, Leonard-centric future if Aldridge signs elsewhere. Pushing Leonard into the starting lineup in lieu of a more apparent contingency plan may be the Trail Blazers only responsible option. This course of action is, of course, second to successfully re-signing Aldridge in the first place, though it is within the realm of reasonable possibility.

In a vacuum, Leonard is not ready, but some of the sweetest fruit ripens off the vine. It may not be long before he can do more than hold his own if need be. At this point in time, the Trail Blazers must be prepared to give him a drastically larger role in the team’s overall scheme—just in case.

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