Playoff tiebreaks: What to make of the hyper-competitive West

With a loss to the Utah Jazz on Saturday night, the Portland Trail Blazers are now officially locked into the Western Conference 4-seed in the upcoming NBA Playoffs. They cannot catch the Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers, or Houston Rockets, nor can they fall below their present position because of the weighted seeding afforded to division winners. But while they now know where they stand, they still have no idea who they will stand against.

The Grizzlies, Clippers, and Spurs are in a three-way tie for second place with records of 54-26. And get this… the Houston Rockets are only a half-game behind them at the 6-seed (53-26) in one of the tightest races in NBA history.

Allow me to break down the NBA Playoff tiebreak procedures so we may better understand what this means for the Trail Blazers if any of the Grizzlies, Spurs, Clippers, or Rockets finish with identical records. This rabbit hole goes pretty deep. If one tiebreak is not enough, the next will be implemented, and so on and so forth.

Tiebreak #1: Division leader wins tiebreak from team not leading a division

This means that in the event of a tie for second, the Clippers cannot finish as the 2-seed. The Warriors are too far ahead of them in the Pacific Division for them to become a division leader. Either the Grizzlies, Spurs, or Rockets would claim a tiebreak with the Clippers depending on which emerges as leader of the Southwest Division.

Circumstantial advantage: MEM, SAS, HOU > LAC

Tiebreak #2: Head-to-head won-lost percentage

Oh boy. This is really crazy. The Grizzlies, Spurs, and Clippers all finished with 2-2 records against each other. In fact, the Grizzlies and Clippers finished 2-2 with the Rockets as well. The only way for this tiebreaker to make a difference is if the Spurs and Rockets tie (Spurs took that season series 3-1).

Circumstantial advantage: SAS > HOU
Not appliacable: LAC, MEM

Tiebreak #3: Division won-lost percentage

This tiebreak is only applicable to teams in the same division. So if the Clippers tie with a non-division winner (tiebreak #1), this tiebreak is still irrelevant for them and they move on to tiebreak #4. As for the others, their division records are as follows:

Grizzlies: 9-7
Spurs: 8-7
Rockets: 7-8

The Spurs and Rockets still have the Pelicans (same division) scheduled for one more game. If the Spurs win their matchup, they can tie the Grizzles, but if the Spurs lose and the Rockets win their matchup, the two of them can still tie.

Circumstantial advantage: MEM > SAS > HOU
Not applicable: LAC

Tiebreak #4: Conference won-lost percentage

Now we’re getting somewhere (sort of). The current Western Conference record for each of these four teams is as follows:

Clippers: 35-15
Grizzlies: 35-16
Spurs: 31-19
Rockets: 31-19

So if playoff tiebreaks 1-3 resolve nothing, this one can make a difference… but only definitively if it comes down to the Clippers or Grizzlies vs. the Spurs or Rockets. Otherwise, there is still room for conference record ties to take place by season’s end.

*Circumstantial advantage: LAC, MEM > SAS, HOU

Tiebreak #5: W-L percentage vs. Playoff teams (own conference)

Still with me? Good, because we finally have some concrete stuff here, though it does depend on those pesky games remaining against the Pelicans among Southwest Division teams, as well as whether or not the Pelicans can hold the eighth seed over the Thunder. Each of the four teams we have discussed has a range for what their record could be against Western Conference playoff teams. They are as follows:

MEM: 16-10 to 18-8
SAS: 14-13 to 15-12
LAC: 14-12 (already determined)
HOU: 10-17 to 13-14

No matter what happens here, the Grizzlies would win this tiebreak and the Rockets would lose. It is still unknown who would win the tiebreak if it came down to the Spurs and the Clippers, but there mathematically has to be a winner and loser in this one.

Circumstantial advantage: MEM > SAS, LAC > HOU

Tiebreak #6 and tiebreak #7 are finally irrelevant, but if you are curious, they are:

Tiebreak #6: W-L percentage vs. Playoff teams (other conference)

Tiebreak #7: Net points, all games

So what have we learned?

• Well, the Clippers lose the most important tiebreak right away, but that only eliminates them from becoming the 2-seed. After that, they have the advantage. Since their remaining schedule is so soft, they are most likely to either claim the 2-seed without a necessary tiebreak or fall to the 3-seed. They are not as likely to play the Trail Blazers in the first round.

• In the Southwest Division, any team can emerge as the leader and claim the first tiebreak, but if there is a tie at the top, the Grizzlies are most likely to benefit from a strong in-division record. This places them firmly atop the running for a high seed with the Clippers, though their schedule is pretty tough up ahead.

• The Spurs and the Rockets lose out in most tiebreak situations as long as they do not finish the season as solitary division leaders. They would have to surpass their rivals outright—a feat the Spurs are more equipped for at this time.

All of this explanation to arrive at this point:

In most tiebreak situations between these four unbelievably close teams, the Spurs and Rockets are most likely to fall to lower seeds, potentially landing one of them with the fifth seed where they would face the Trail Blazers in the first round of the 2015 NBA Playoffs.

Next: Blazers possible 1st round opponents by statistical matchups