Mailbag: Trail Blazers’ best and worst 2015 NBA playoff matchups

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The West is going to be incredibly interesting in the playoffs this year. As it stands right now, the Portland Trail Blazers are in fourth place. Firmly? Not at all. Seeds 2-7 are all within five and a half games of each other. Given injuries, recoveries, and general uncertainty, we really don’t know what the matchups will look like after the next 20 games. However; we can see pretty clearly what we want and what we don’t want.

Current standings

1. Golden State Warriors (50-12)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (45-18)
3. Houston Rockets (43-20)
4. Portland Trail Blazers (41-20)
5. Los Angeles Clippers (41-23)
6. Dallas Mavericks (41-24)
7. San Antonio Spurs (39-23)
8. Oklahoma City Thunder (35-28)

Looking at the current top-8, I have my personal preferences split into three tiers.

Feb 22, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) defends Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Kaman (35) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Tier #1: “Well this couldn’t be any worse”

In this tier we find the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies for a variety of reasons. Not only do they have the best records in the conference, they are the only Western Conference playoff teams that the Trail Blazers have not beaten this season. Portland is 0-1 against Golden State and 0-3 against Memphis. In fact, the Trail Blazers have yet to score in triple-digits against either of them. Both are Top-6 defenses in this league. A first round meeting with either would be a huge problem, but facing one of them is most likely an inevitability of deep advancement.

Feb 27, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka (9) and Portland Trail Blazers guard Arron Afflalo (4) battle for the ball during the fourth quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

Tier #2: “Could be better, could be worse, could be a lot of fun”

Here we have the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Los Angeles Clippers are frustrating because of the way they utilize high screens with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. Damian Lillard in particular struggles with these, which is why Clippers point guard Chris Paul has averaged a robust 27 points per game against the Trail Blazers this season. Still, the Trail Blazers tend to keep it respectable overall. All three of their meetings so far were decided by less than seven points. Portland may be just 1-2 against LAC, but two-possession final margins are more telling than the definitive outcomes in this circumstance.

The Trail Blazers are actually 3-0 against the Thunder this year, but the reigning MVP Kevin Durant played in none of those games. This makes the Thunder a bit of a question mark in the post-season. Since the Thunder have undergone numerous roster changes and struggled to make it into the playoff race this season, I can’t in good faith put them in the same tier as the Warriors and Grizzlies, but they are not far off. I don’t think anyone wants to play them in round 1, although their pseudo-wildcard status makes them as intriguing as Russell Westbrook is explosive.

Mar 5, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum (88) passes the ball over Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) and Mavericks forward Richard Jefferson (24) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Tier #3: “I can live with that”

Strangely enough, I ended up with all the Texas teams in this tier.

The Rockets are probably the most daunting of the three, but I would be okay with seeing them in the playoffs. Dwight Howard is all banged up, Kevin McHale is a legitimate coaching liability, they don’t have Chandler Parsons anymore… I just see James Harden getting too worn down to carry them through a 7-game series. Granted, he has played some spectacular (albeit borderline unwatchable) basketball this year, so the Rockets absolutely pose a threat. The team is also pretty deep.

The Spurs have been a shell of their championship selves all year. This often gets attributed to their tendency to coast through the regular season, but if you sit back and watch them, it is apparent that a few guys just can’t piece things together. I don’t know what exactly happened to Tony Parker, but the Spurs may actually be better with Patty Mills running the show, and that is no slight at Mills. Lillard averages more points against the Spurs than any other team partially for this reason.

And finally we have the Mavericks. Everyone wants to meet the Mavericks in the playoffs. The trade for Rajon Rondo set the stage for the most beautiful slow-motion train of the season. Since acquiring Rondo in December, the Mavericks are 22-16 and clinging to sixth seed due to the Thunder’s injury woes and the Spurs’ aforementioned struggles. The only way they make it out of the first round is if Head Coach Rick Carlisle outthinks his opponent—which could happen. I would like to see him try against the Trail Blazers. With LaMarcus Aldridge in the post, he can’t hide Dirk Nowitzki’s worsening defense.

In all likelihood, the Trail Blazers will end up with either the Clippers or the Rockets to start things off. Without Wesley Matthews for the remainder of the season, they will probably slip a little in the standings. Most realistic worst case scenario: they drop to sixth and the Grizzlies drop to third. Most realistic best case scenario: they hold fourth and the Mavericks climb to fifth.

Next: Rose City edition D Lillard 1 first look