The offensive repercussions of Wesley Matthews’ injury
By this point, everyone is well aware that Blazers’ guard Wesley Matthews is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. In the days since Matthews went down with the injury, his teammates have talked a lot about his hustle, toughness, and catalytic defensive abilities. But, Matthews has been integral to the Blazers’ success on the offensive end of the floor in ways that, in the wake of his unfortunate injury, seem to have been overlooked.
With Matthews on the bench, the Trail Blazers’ play basketball at a noticeably slower pace. With him in the game, the team averages 97.21 possessions per 48 minutes. In the 15.4 minutes that Matthews sits per game, the Blazers’ pace falls to just 95.21.
As a spot-up shooter, Matthews is among the NBA’s elite. On the season, he is one of only five players with 100 made spot-up jump shots, and among the league’s most efficient shooters, is averaging 1.17 points per possession in catch-and-shoot situations.
Jan 31, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Wesley Matthews (2) during the game against the Milwaukee Bucks at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Milwaukee won 95-88. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
His off-the-dribble three point shooting has been well examined—and for good reason—but his value within the Blazers’ offense has always been as a spot-up shooter and floor spacer. The spacing that a shooter of Matthews’ caliber creates for his teammates is something that can’t currently be quantified, at least not adequately so. But it’s safe to say that any player within the league’s top five in three-point makes, who boasts a true shooting percentage of 58.5 percent—in the company of such renowned shooters as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and free-throw connoisseurs like James Harden—is going to have a gravity about him that pulls defenders out of helping-positions to open up lanes for his teammates.
Matthews is also a quick decision maker on the perimeter, often facilitating ball movement along the perimeter off kick-outs from the low post. On 48.2 touches per game, Matthews averages 31.5 passes, which is the highest pass-to-touch ratio among Blazers’ starters. His assist numbers don’t jump off the page because most of his passes are wing-to-wing passes that precede an assist—again, ball movement. In fact, Matthews’ average, total-time of possession per game is just 1.5 minutes.
Matthews’ replacement in the Blazers’ lineup, Arron Afflalo, is a ‘stickier’ two-guard whose strengths are more in exploiting poor defensive-rotations when he holds the ball, rather than initiating a swing of the ball that ultimately shifts a defense out of position. In nearly five fewer minutes per game than Matthews’, Afflalo’s touch-time is just 20 seconds less than Matthews.
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Afflalo is more skilled with the ball than Matthews, though, and it would not be surprising to see the Blazers’ ball movement stagnate a bit as Afflalo finds more freedom to create his own shots in the half-court. This is not necessarily a negative as Afflalo is an efficient mid-range scorer off the dribble, but the Blazers’ offense thrives on ball movement and the absence of Matthews’ passing could pose problems at times during the remainder of the season.
Although the Blazers’ have more than a handful of shooters to come off the bench, none are as revered, league-wide as Matthews. Opponents will no doubt contract in Matthews’ absence to cut off driving lanes. Without the threat of a quick, prolific three-point shooter on the wing, the odds of gambling on defense shift slightly in favor of the defense.
While it is unlikely that Matthews’ absence derails the Blazers’ offense, it will undoubtedly create new problems to which the team must adjust, and, with the chess game that is the NBA playoffs fast approaching, I’m sure Head Coach Terry Stotts and the Blazers’ would prefer not to deal with new problems in the postseason.