Trail Blazers’ close-game performances cause for concern?
After their win on Sunday against the Sacramento Kings, the Portland Trail Blazers have won three games in a row for the first time since January 10th. As the season starts drawing to a close, this is a welcome result for a team that has been struggling of late. Since their January 14th loss to the San Antonio Spurs, the Trail Blazers are 9-11 (0.450). Before that they were 30-8 (0.789).
Mar 1, 2015; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Rudy Gay (8) goes up for a shot against Portland Trail Blazers center Robin Lopez (42) during the fourth quarter at Sleep Train Arena. The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Sacramento Kings 110-99. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
As I watched the Trail Blazers close out the Kings down the stretch, I was surprised to realize how worried I was that they would somehow lose the game. Portland held a 12 point lead with 11:13 left, which, while certainly not insurmountable, should be a comfortable buffer for a team with dreams of making a playoff run that is playing a bottom-feeding team without their best player (DeMarcus Cousins).
Before I knew it, though, the Kings were within one with 8:22 seconds left to go, and flashbacks of the horrendous loss against the Dallas Mavericks were replaying in my mind. As alluded to earlier, however, the Trail Blazers kept their composure, and on the back of nine fourth quarter points from Damian Lillard, they ultimately won by 11.
This surprise at the Trail Blazers’ effective closeout gave me pause, as, in addition to the poor performance in the Dallas game, it seemed as if the Trail Blazers have been struggling more in close games as of late. So, using that loss to the Spurs in January as a cutoff, I investigated the Trail Blazers’ performance during close games before and after that game.
Defining a “close” game was a little harder, but to keep it simple I limited it to games decided by six points or less, since that is still within two possessions. All in all, the Blazers have had 20 such games on the season, going 11-9 overall.
Yet, when you split the results into before and after that Spurs game, the difference is striking. Before the January loss to the Spurs (which again, seems more or less to be when the slide started), the Trail Blazers were 7-2 (0.778) in games decided by six points or less. After that game, they have only been 4-7 (0.364) in close games.
While these are relatively small samples, that is a colossal difference in performance during similar situations. However; it is still dangerous to try to definitively say what is causing what. Do the Trail Blazers have a worse record as of late because of poor performances in close games, or are they playing poorly in close games because they are simply playing worse overall?
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As with most things in basketball, I suspect that there are multiple contributing factors, but the end result is the same – losses. In a conference as brutal as the West this year, this is a huge problem for the team. Being able to secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs would be a huge advantage for the Trail Blazers, and losing winnable games is killer when trying to achieve this goal.
For this reason, the Trail Blazers’ current three-game win streak is encouraging. While it did not end up appearing too close, the win against the Kings was a great confidence builder for slamming the door shut on a team attempting to come back. The game against the Oklahoma City Thunder was a win in a truly close game, and against a talented division rival to boot. The Trail Blazers will need more wins such as these if they want to be in position to make noise in the playoffs.