Arron Afflalo: A Perfect Fit For the Blazers’ Bench
To kick off a busy trade deadline day in the NBA, the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets agreed to terms on a five-player deal that would send Thomas Robinson, Will Barton, Victor Claver, and a future lottery-protected first round pick to Denver in exchange for guard Arron Afflalo and forward Alonzo Gee.
While Gee is unlikely to carve out a significant role with the Blazers, Afflalo should immediately step into a role as the team’s sixth-man. Alongside Chris Kaman and Steve Blake, the Blazer’s bench has featured an inconsistent and rotating cast of characters. But the addition of Afflalo sets up a clear eight-man rotation that will likely mean more consistent, albeit diminished, minutes for C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe.
Afflalo is an interesting addition to the roster as his skillset is so similar to that of starting guard Wesley Matthews. Both players are bigger-than-average shooting guards that can space the floor with their three-point shooting ability and can also punish smaller defenders on the block.
Averaging 0.97 points per post up possession, Matthews sits right behind all-star teammate and back-to-the-basket savant LaMarcus Aldridge in low post scoring efficiency (Aldridge scores 0.98 per possession) across the entire league. He is deceptively good in the post. Among backcourt players with at least 100 post possessions on the season, Matthews trails only one other guard: his new teammate, Arron Afflalo, who edges out Matthews at 0.99 points per post up possession this season.
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The Blazer’s frequently run sets to put Matthews on the block in mismatch situations, usually via a high-post entry pass from Aldridge, who then remains on the strong-side wing to dissuade his defender from helping. The space afforded Matthews on the block in these situations allows him to play one-on-one against an overmatched defender.
Afflalo is effectively a mirror image of Matthews on the block. Whereas Matthews generally bodies his defender and spins to his right for the turnaround jump shot, like Aldridge, Afflalo prefers to spin the other direction, placing his body between his defender and the ball to create separation on his turnaround jumper. In Denver, many of Afflalo’s post ups featured a strong hedge or outright double-team as Denver’s bigs lacked the outside shooting prowess to effectively space the floor.
In Portland, Afflalo will undoubtedly find more room to operate on the block. With offensive sets already in place that feature Matthews in the post, he should fit right in to a similar role with the bench unit.
Jan 3, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Arron Afflalo (10) during the game against the Memphis Grizzlies at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Though his production this season has fallen off slightly, Afflalo was a fringe all-star candidate just a season ago in Orlando. Having a player of his caliber ready to accept a bench role, as he seems to be, should significantly improve the Blazer’s oft-disparaged bench unit.
For all his struggles this season—and he has struggled—Afflalo remains one of the league’s best catch-and-shoot players. He currently ranks 21st in the NBA in catch-and-shoot points per game at 5.5. The Blazers already have two players among the top 20 in that category in Aldridge (5.9) and Matthews (7.2). Overall, Afflalo has shot the ball only slightly worse this season than in the past, but his three-point percentage with the Nuggets is just 33.7 percent, down from 42.7 in 2013-14. Only 18.5 percent of his three point shots this season have been wide open—the closest defender being at least six feet away.
By comparison, nearly 40 percent of the Blazer’s total three-point shots are wide-open. No doubt the lack of space Afflalo found in Denver contributed to his shooting woes. This Blazers team thrives on creating open looks from beyond the arc so expect a significant uptick in Afflalo’s shooting percentages in Portland.
Defensively, expect much of the same from Afflalo. He is a big guard that can defend both the two and three spot. Within the Blazers’ more conservative defense, Afflalo likely won’t register career best steals numbers, but he is a quick-footed defender that can defend multiple positions and give the Blazers’ defense yet another multiple-position defender.
Afflalo is not necessarily a lock-down defender, but he is more than competent on that end of the floor. Likely, his presence will be felt most on the offensive end of the court. The Blazers have long lacked a true bench scorer that can create his own shot efficiently, while also stretching the defense as a catch-and-shoot threat. Afflalo fills both of those holes as well as any player in the league. And while the Blazers defense has held strong this season, the team has slipped in offensive efficiency, currently floating in and out of the top ten in offensive rating. Afflalo addresses that need perfectly as the Blazers look to recapture their early season offense-prowess down the stretch run of the regular season.