Mailbag: Trail Blazers concerns from the bench to the Thunder
By David MacKay
If you would like to see your questions addressed in next week’s edition of Mailbag Monday, email them to ripcityproject@fansided.com. I am always happy to hear from you. For more information, check out the introductory article.
"Hi David, I’m from Australia so I can’t always keep up with what’s going on but I am interested in how our bench will cope come playoff time as we seem pretty shorthanded! Cheers, all the best. Matt C."
The Trail Blazers’ bench is actually a pretty solid design for the playoffs this year. Led by Steve Blake, who has played in 10 playoff series’ in his career, and veteran big man Chris Kaman, all of the young guys should be able to build upon their experience from last post-season. Players like Allen Crabbe and C.J. McCollum will have a real potential to contribute nightly.
The nice thing is that they won’t necessarily have to. Depth is important in the playoffs so that coaches can strategically restructure individual matchups that aren’t working, but the game-to-game rotation usually shrinks to allow more time for the starters. Meaning some of the bench guys will see their minutes fluctuate as plug-and-play options. In this sense, being relatively shallow is not a major issue unless a significant injury rears its head.
I am eager to see what this second unit can do in a playoff series. We only saw flashes of Joel Freeland in questionable health during the Trail Blazers’ 2014 run, and he is probably their most consistent creator of second chance opportunities. We didn’t see Crabbe at all, as he wasn’t yet trusted with that sort of responsibility. The combination of growth and veteran additions could make Portland a force to be reckoned with.
It is still rather early, but given Terry Stotts preferences, this is how I would predict the second unit to shake out in April:
Steve Blake – Used nightly for distribution/leadership
Chris Kaman – Used nightly for scoring/rebounding
C.J. McCollum – Used as needed for scoring/spacing
Joel Freeland – Used as needed for defense/rebounding
Allen Crabbe – Used as needed for defense/spacing
Dorell Wright – Used as needed for leadership/spacing
Will Barton – Used only in garbage time
Thomas Robinson – Used only in garbage time
Meyers Leonard – Inactive
Victor Claver – Inactive
Most of these players are capable of adjusting to playoff intensity and all of them have been part of a playoff team before. Assuming even a narrow majority of them are healthy for the post-season, short-handedness won’t be an issue for the Trail Blazers. The young guys are improving with each passing game and are almost ready to shoulder more responsibility in a playoff environment.
"Now that OKC has Kevin [Durant] and Russell [Westbrook] back, do you think they could catch Portland and win the division? Not sure how much of a long shot that is, but they have already begun winning again.Kristopher T."
To quote the fictitious Reverend Lovejoy: “Short answer, yes with and if. Long answer, no with a but.” Yes, the Thunder pose a threat if the Trail Blazers are eventually forced to face similar injury problems. Portland has a nine game lead on Oklahoma City, which is a yawning chasm in the Western Conference, much less the Northwest Division. The most likely scenario in which OKC passes Portland involves injuries that we cannot presently predict.
So no, I don’t think the Thunder will catch up, but it’s not impossible. If we peg the Trail Blazers somewhere around a reasonable 50 to 55 wins by playoff time, the Thunder would have to go 43-19 through the remainder of the season to reach the low end of the Trail Blazers’ projection. A minimum win-loss percentage of .694 sustained over 62 games would not be unheard of for the Thunder.
However; they have already lost a few of their would-be freebies (Milwaukee, Detroit, Utah, Denver). Their play will have to be immaculate to forge a comeback. I remain unconvinced that a team on shaky legs, missing components from last season (namely Thabo Sefolosha and Caron Butler), that just barely posted a two-point victory at full health in their second meeting with the 3-18 Pistons can pull that off.
Yet, they still make me nervous. The season is young and just about anything could happen over the next several months. I think more depends on what happens with the Trail Blazers than what happens with the Thunder. Stumbling over a molehill could make a mountain of difference as long as OKC holds up their end and wins games as expected. It is Portland’s responsibility to watch where they step.