C.J. McCollum, Meyers Leonard, Thomas Robinson – Option implications
By David MacKay
On September 29th, the Portland Trail Blazers exercised Damian Lillard’s fourth year option, but announced that they would wait until October 25th to decide on Thomas Robinson, C.J. McCollum, and Meyers Leonard. These decisions are hugely important for Portland, not only because they determine who will stay and who will go, but because of the implications they have for how the Trail Blazers will treat free agency next year.
Each of these three players will become more expensive in 2015-16. McCollum’s price will see a slight jump from $2,421,000 to $2,525,160 (+ $104,160); Leonard’s price will jump from $2,317,920 to $3,075,879 (+ $757,959); Robinson’s price will jump from $3,678,360 to $4,660,482 (+ $982,122). It is unlikely that the Trail Blazers will keep all three, because of increasing price.
McCollum will probably have his option exercised. Unlike Leonard and Robinson, the Trail Blazers are looking at his third year option and not his fourth. Not only is McCollum the cheapest of the three, he will remain cheap through the end of 2017 if the Trail Blazers keep him around that long. The only way McCollum goes is if all three do, as part of a sweeping reform, but that would be quite a shock. However; the fact that Portland is waiting on his contract too suggests that they are keeping their options open.
If McCollum goes, reform will follow.
Leonard’s case is pretty cut-and-dried. The big man has contributed very little in his first two seasons and has proven to be a defensive liability. That is bad news bears for a player on a team that values their centers for rim protection. There is about a 50/50 chance that his option will be exercised. The Trail Blazers may keep him because he is enormous, young, and relatively inexpensive, or they may boot him to clear the books because he is not improving fast enough.
If Leonard goes, business will continue as usual.
Robinson is where things get really interesting. He has shown the most potential of the three, but is also the most expensive. Although he is starting to come into his own, his time on the court will always be capped by LaMarcus Aldridge. Are the Trail Blazers willing to spend close to $5M on a player that plays sub-15 minutes a game? The answer could be yes, but if they do not exercise Robinson’s option for monetary purposes, you better believe that money could go toward pursuit of a big free agent.
If Robinson goes, prepare for fireworks.
The Trail Blazers have three major contracts coming to an end this season: Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, and Robin Lopez. Aldridge has already stated that he wants to re-sign for five more seasons, but the fate of Matthews and Lopez is less certain. If the Trail Blazers jettison Robinson, these two have to watch out as well. By allowing all three to leave, Portland can free up enough cash to go after a super star.
Nov 11, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers center Roy Hibbert (55) takes a shot against Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana defeats Memphis 95-79. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
This could mean pursuing a top-tier big man. The perfect storm is swirling for the Trail Blazers to get the center of their dreams. They have enough options in the backcourt to cobble together a working unit if Matthews leaves, they can create an open slot while creating extra funds if Lopez leaves, they are at their height of appeal to incoming free agents, and 2015 has a healthy stock of rim protectors on the market. Not exercising Robinson’s option could be the first step in creating space for what comes next.
Consider that Marc Gasol (unrestricted), Roy Hibbert (player option), and DeAndre Jordan (unrestricted) will all be pursuable free agents in 2015. All of them are upgrades. While only Gasol and Hibbert (depending on which Hibbert he is) would be worth dissolving the current roster, Jordan is there as a high upside substitute if the Trail Blazers ‘Deron Williams’ themselves in pursuit of the other two. If the Trail Blazers are going to make a push for an elite center to pair with Aldridge, 2015 is the right time to do it.
This is the sort of thing Portland will look at in the coming weeks as they consider their options with McCollum, Leonard, and Robinson. They will only chop Robinson over Leonard if they are trying to free up as much money as possible; they will only chop Leonard over Robinson if they feel he is a lost cause; they will only chop McCollum if they chop Leonard and Robinson in an all-or-nothing gamble to bring in new players (but that would be drastic).
So pay very close attention toward the end of October when these announcements come. Each option – exercised or not – comes with its own implications. Because of the talent and money discrepancies between Leonard and Robinson, we are in a unique position to understand the Trail Blazers’ priorities depending on how each player is handled. The outlined free agency route is just one of many dominoes that could fall if either player is pushed over.