Damian Lillard expectations & productive aberration

In a basic sense, two major factors commonly contribute to the offensive production of a young NBA star on the rise: 1) how much time he spends on the court, and 2) natural improvement over time. Usually, players in their first few NBA seasons will see a gradual increase in playing time, which, paired with gradual improvement, results in increased production per game. However; players that have their minutes decreased year-to-year supposedly lose out on maximum production, reaching a pseudo-equilibrium as statistical evidence of personal growth is capped by the reduction in minutes.

This was almost the case for Damian Lillard in the 2013-14 season. After leading the entire league in minutes played as a rookie one season prior, Lillard’s court time diminished considerably; falling by 2.8 minutes per game (nearly four hours over the course of an 82 game season). Yet, Lillard was able to score at a higher clip, netting 1.7 more points per game (133 points over the course of an 82 game season), despite the decrease in playing time.

Season	Age	Tm	Pos	G	MP	FGA	AST	PTS
2012-13	22	POR	PG	82	38.6	15.7	6.5	19.0
2013-14 ★	23	POR	PG	82	35.8	15.9	5.6	20.7
Career				164	37.2	15.8	6.0	19.9

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/23/2014.

He was not the only player accomplish this feat in 2013-14. Among a few others, Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors also made a significant jump in scoring while playing fewer minutes per game than the previous season. While the two share a similar style of play as point guards that are relied on for scoring and three-point shooting, neither of their leaps in production can be solely attributed to the effects of personal growth outweighing reduced time on the court.

Season	Age	Tm	Pos	G	MP	FGA	AST	PTS
2012-13	24	GSW	PG	78	38.2	17.8	6.9	22.9
2013-14 ★	25	GSW	PG	78	36.5	17.7	8.5	24.0
Career				336	35.6	15.7	6.7	20.3

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/23/2014.

Apr 13, 2014; Portland, OR, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Andre Iguodala (9) drives past Portland Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum (88) during the first quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

Each had help running their offense from a unique facilitating forward. Lillard had Nicolas Batum, who lessened his own scoring efforts to act as a secondary distributor, and Curry had Andre Iguodala, who was acquired via sign and trade to do most of the same things. This is where we see a third major factor emerge to help erase the productive negation that decreased minutes are supposed to pose: Strength/strengths of supporting cast.

Because of this, it is not always the amount of minutes that matters most, but the type of minutes. Lillard works most effectively when he can share the offensive burden with other players. This transcends distribution and overlaps scoring as well. With LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews taking more initiative than they did last season (translating to more field goal attempts per game from both), Lillard succumbed less to attrition and combined the decreased pressure with decreased minutes to pack a heftier punch.